Happy Meteorological Spring!
With the arrival of March, we have moved into “fake” spring. True spring arrives in just a few weeks, but for the weather community, March, April, and May are considered spring for record keeping purposes.
February, much like the rest of meteorological winter, was a disappointment for those that love snow and cold. It was a strange winter that had something for everyone. December was an all time warmest month, January saw a slow evolution to wintry conditions, and a few weeks of activity in February provided the state with the majority of its snow. However, February ended up being the opposite of what typical El Nino patterns would suggest—it was wetter than normal, but also warmer than normal, thanks to the lack of a persistent -NAO and -AO.
What did you think about the season? Let us know below, on Facebook or Twitter @SouthernCTWX!
We will have a full analysis of the winter that was once it is really over.
Let’s take a quick look at the week ahead:
Tuesday night into Wednesday, a storm system will rapidly move through the region. It cuts to our west, meaning that the precipitation is mostly rain. Some guidance suggests that there may be enough moisture around for us to see some snowflakes as the storm and cold front departs tomorrow afternoon, but I am not a big believer in the cold air catching up to precipitation in this instance. I expect the best chance of snow or mixed precipitation to be in northwest CT, with a coating if you’re lucky.
Surprise surprise, the potential event is delayed a day. Thursday looks beautiful…and cold. Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing for most of the state, and clouds will thicken by evening as we look at our next shot of wintry precipitation.
I think parts of the state will see snowflakes on Friday, but I am not sold on this being a significant event for anyone. We have a more favorable track for a winter weather event, but currently it looks like a scrape to or miss.
We remain a fair amount away from onset, but I think we can rule out a major event—which really was never seriously on the table. The key thing that we are watching is how a shortwave out west ends up interacting with another northern stream piece of energy that will be located in southeast Canada. Currently, the GFS is a bit more robust, as it attempts to phase the two and bring a more northerly track. The euro, while not buying that solution entirely, is ticking north in recent runs. We may even be talking about getting precipitation through an inverted trof, which tells me that we’re probably in trouble in terms of expecting a significant event.
Right now I am thinking a coating to an inch statewide, with more in—you guessed it—southern Connecticut. The ceiling is low on this one, even if there are ticks northwest.
Saturday and Beyond
After this storm clears, the rest of the period looks calm and seasonably cold until early next week when a chance of showers develops on Monday and Tuesday as we warm up. The euro does have another piece of energy near the region on Sunday, but I’m not ready to bite yet.
Tuesday night: Rain develops overnight. Temperatures spike to around 50 before beginning to fall. Chance of rain 100%.
Wednesday: Rain beginning overnight and continuing through the day. Chance of a flip to snow (especially northwest) during the afternoon. Highs in the low 50s overnight drop to the low 30s by the afternoon and 20s by evening. Breezy. Icy conditions possible. Chance of rain 100%. Chance of snow 20%.
Thursday: Sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Friday: Chance of snow from early morning through the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 50%.
Saturday: Sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Sunday: Sunny with increasing clouds by evening. Highs in the low 40s.
Monday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds and a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
As always, thank you for reading.