After a cold weekend, we’re in for a seesaw week, as a new pattern attempts to establish itself and bring the potential for wintry precipitation.
First a bit about February. What a month it was! The first half was more reminiscent of winter with above average snow and decent shots of cold. The last half however, was a torch (as expected). The month finished over 4 degrees above normal.
The pattern is reshuffling, and there is potential that by the end of the week, we’re settling into a wintry pattern. Remember that March is often a transition month, where we’re either marching toward Spring or locked in a war with winter as it fights a losing battle.
We’re on a warmer track as we start off the week, but that comes with wet conditions. On Tuesday, the day will be dominated by showers, some of which could be heavy at times. Along the northern border, temperatures may be cold enough for mixed precipitation early on and some icing. That’s something to keep in mind in the morning. I expect everything to quickly change to rain after sunrise if that happens, though.
By Thursday, winter is returning to Connecticut. I expect a colder day, with a brisk northwest wind that continues to funnel in cold air from the north. As an aside, after a very warm period where the Pacific pattern has been warming much of the north, our source region for cold is becoming very cold. Just take a look at the anomalies on the GEFS.
Friday is a period of interest, as we watch a clipper system dive down from the northwest. The chief question here is not whether this will be a system with precipitation type issues—we’d be cold enough for snow. The question is the eventual track. Earlier model cycles have put this clipper on a track to bring a light event to Connecticut. Recent trends have suppressed this low, bringing only very light snow to the state. It wouldn’t take much to get a trend further north however so we’ll be watching closely.
After the low departs on Friday, Saturday looks like another cold day as high pressure from Canada begins to nose in. At the same time, an area of low pressure will be traversing across the Midwest. There was a fair amount of hype on social media after on run of the European model last week which showed a very large storm for much of the East Coast. Since then, the guidance has dealt in reality, with a low that comes out of the Midwest and provides a moderate to significant, but not insane, snowfall somewhere along the East Coast. The recent trend, just like for the Friday system, has been to suppress the storm.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 90%.
Wednesday: Showers early with some clearing later in the day. Highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain early 40%.
Thursday: Colder, dry, and windy. Highs in the low to mid 40s.
Friday: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow 30%.
Saturday: Partly sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Sunday: SCW period of interest. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Monday: Mostly cloudy early with clearing by afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
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