Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Currently we are watching for a potentially historic snowstorm to impact the region from Monday through Wednesday, but first we will have a calm before the storm, today will feature sunny skies and seasonable temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, perfect for cleaning up from yesterday's storm. As we head through this evening, mostly clear skies will become mostly cloudy skies, especially after midnight. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s.
Currently we are watching for a potentially historic snowstorm to impact the region from Monday through Wednesday, but first we will have a calm before the storm, today will feature sunny skies and seasonable temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, perfect for cleaning up from yesterday's storm. As we head through this evening, mostly clear skies will become mostly cloudy skies, especially after midnight. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s.
Looking ahead to Monday morning, skies will be overcast with a chance of scattered flurries and snow showers, especially as we head toward the latter part of the morning. Snow intensity will become steadier during the mid to late afternoon, just in time to impact evening rush hour. Light to moderate snow becomes heavy snow during the latter part of Monday night through Tuesday morning. Along with the increasing snow intensity, winds will pick up dramatically as well, at times creating blizzard conditions, especially in the eastern and southern portions of the state. Shoreline cities and towns will not only have to deal with buffeting 50-60 mph wind gusts, but coastal flooding, as the rapidly strengthening low pressure area piles water into Long Island Sound.
During the day on Tuesday, heavy snow and high winds will persist, especially in eastern areas. Models are hinting at strong bands of snow setting up in the western part of the state, as well as the eastern part of the state, with consistently moderate snows for central Connecticut. Heavy snows look to continue through Tuesday afternoon, with the heaviest ending by Tuesday evening. On Tuesday night, light to moderate snow will continue to fall, and the 12z model runs hint at snow continuing through the morning hours of Wednesday, before clearing takes place Wednesday afternoon. I do expect that the majority of accumulating snow occurs late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon as the clipper system rapidly intensifies just off the coast. As the low pressure area sits nearly stationary just off the coast and rots, bands of varying intensities will rotate through the area, thus accumulation could differ greatly from town to town, and even within a mile of any given spot.
Currently our thoughts on accumulations are, 16-24 inches west of I91, and 18-30 inches east of I91. The "lower" end of these totals looks to be dead in the center of the state, as current modeling depicts less in these areas, and the heaviest of the banding will just miss to either the east or west. That said, 16-18 inches of snow is nothing to sneeze at, and with winds whipping to nearly 60 mph, great caution must be taken. Even during a "lull" in snowfall, winds will still kick up loose snow, creating white out conditions and high drifts in place susceptible to such conditions. So even if you do see a drop off in intensity, don't be caught off guard, conditions outdoors could still be quite dangerous.
As far as temperatures go, statewide, temperatures will be well below freezing. Winds will create windchills ranging from 0-10 above. If you do need to be outside, please dress in layers, keeping all extremities and skin covered. Just a few minutes outside in these conditions could cause frostbite. Driving is not encouraged from Monday night through Tuesday night, but if you do need to drive, please be sure to have a winter survival kit in your car (water, extra food, phone charger, clothing, shovels, etc) in case you are stranded.
Currently, Blizzard watches are in effect for Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex, and New London counties with Winter Storm Watches in effect for the northern counties of the state. By this evening, I do believe the entire state will be in some kind of warning, meaning blizzard or winter storm conditions are imminent by tomorrow morning.
To sum up, today is the quiet before the storm, with temperatures being quite seasonable, ranging from the mid to upper 30s statewide with sunny conditions. Temperatures fall back into the 20s this evening and clouds increase. An Alberta Clipper drops in from Canada and tracks through the Mid Atlantic then eventually off the mid Atlantic coast where it eventually start to phase and intensify into a strong low pressure system or "Miller B" and begins to track north and eastward where it eventually becomes nearly stationary at the 40/70 coordinate, or "benchmark". This low will be trapped between Atlantic blocking to the east and a strong higher pressure system to the north. The system will finally begin to dissipate later on Tuesday, basically just off of the Massachusetts coast. Snow could begin to fall as soon as late morning Monday, and become steadier and heavier toward dinnertime. The height of the snowfall looks to be late Monday night through early Tuesday afternoon, with additional accumulating snowfall impacting the area through lunchtime on Wednesday, where totals statewide look to be 16-24 inches with isolated higher totals. Main impacts from the storm, will be of course heavy, blinding snow which will make roads very treacherous or not drivable period. Wind, which not only has the ability to cause damage to trees and buildings etc, will cause blizzard conditions and dangerous wind chills. As with most nor'easters, the shoreline looks to be in danger of some coastal flooding as the rapidly intensifying low pressure system piles water into the Sound. Please heed all warnings from local media and National Weather Service about such impacts.
To sum up, today is the quiet before the storm, with temperatures being quite seasonable, ranging from the mid to upper 30s statewide with sunny conditions. Temperatures fall back into the 20s this evening and clouds increase. An Alberta Clipper drops in from Canada and tracks through the Mid Atlantic then eventually off the mid Atlantic coast where it eventually start to phase and intensify into a strong low pressure system or "Miller B" and begins to track north and eastward where it eventually becomes nearly stationary at the 40/70 coordinate, or "benchmark". This low will be trapped between Atlantic blocking to the east and a strong higher pressure system to the north. The system will finally begin to dissipate later on Tuesday, basically just off of the Massachusetts coast. Snow could begin to fall as soon as late morning Monday, and become steadier and heavier toward dinnertime. The height of the snowfall looks to be late Monday night through early Tuesday afternoon, with additional accumulating snowfall impacting the area through lunchtime on Wednesday, where totals statewide look to be 16-24 inches with isolated higher totals. Main impacts from the storm, will be of course heavy, blinding snow which will make roads very treacherous or not drivable period. Wind, which not only has the ability to cause damage to trees and buildings etc, will cause blizzard conditions and dangerous wind chills. As with most nor'easters, the shoreline looks to be in danger of some coastal flooding as the rapidly intensifying low pressure system piles water into the Sound. Please heed all warnings from local media and National Weather Service about such impacts.
Have a good rest of your day everyone! As always, thank you for reading, and stay tuned for further updates...- Tim
