Cool and crisp conditions are ruling the day today across most of Connecticut, with temps generally a few degrees on either side of 50. For the rest of the workweek, expect similar weather, but the first coastal storm of the season comes in for the weekend and will bring some rain to the area.
Cool and calm weather is expected for the end of the workweek as high pressure moves across the area. Highs should be in the upper 40s to around 50 on both Thursday and Friday, with mostly sunny skies expected throughout the period. The growing season has ended for most areas of the state, but for those areas where it has not, I expect a freeze Thursday evening to end it aside from possibly the immediate shoreline. Lows will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s across the state, with the usual radiators seeing the lowest readings on Friday morning.
Here's a look at forecast lows Friday morning from the NAM - I'd shave a few degrees off of these in the usual radiating spots.
The general idea of a nor-easter from earlier in the week looks to be proving correct for the weekend. The main difference that we’re seeing is that the timing has sped up, and this now looks to be more of a Saturday event. Low pressure tracks northeast along the coastline early Saturday morning, spreading precipitation into the area by the early morning hours. The GFS and Euro now bring precip in by early Saturday morning (as early as 2-3 AM in the southwest corner of the state) as opposed to holding off until later in the day or even Sunday morning as was shown on some of the earlier runs. While some models earlier in the week were showing a chance of a bit of frozen precipitation to start, I am expecting this to be a rain event for the state, with the only exception possibly being in the northwest and northeast hills where some flurries and perhaps a slushy coating of snow could start us off, however it will be quickly washed away as warm air moves in and pushes surface temps above freezing. Unfortunately, it looks like most of Saturday will be a washout; the heaviest rain should be from mid-morning through mid-afternoon and we could see some drying by the evening hours, but in general I wouldn’t plan on Saturday being a day for outdoor activities or yardwork. Precipitation amounts look somewhere between three quarters of an inch and an inch and half, with most areas probably being towards the lower end and a few lucky spots hitting the jackpot if they end up in some heavier bands. Temps will be below normal with daytime highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
For Sunday, expect some lingering showers (especially in the morning hours), otherwise, we should see mostly cloudy skies throughout the day with perhaps a peek or two of sunshine late in the day. Temps should be in the mid to upper 50s.
Here's a look at the system on the GFS.
Unsettled weather continues into next week as guidance brings a follow-up system through; the Euro keeps it much weaker and only brings showers to the area, while the GFS develops another coastal system and results in more widespread rain with another half an inch or so of liquid. Current timing on both models looks like late Monday into early Tuesday, so for now I will carry high chance pops for Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning and we can reassess this system in a couple of days as the guidance becomes clearer. High pressure moves back in by midweek, bringing generally clear skies and continued below normal temps.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Saturday: Rain, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Sunday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday: A chance of rain late, otherwise, increasingly cloudy, with highs in the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday: A chance of rain early, otherwise, clearing, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Have a great evening and thank you for reading SCW!