It’s been a warm week(and month) so far in Connecticut. However, that is about to change, as the first extended cold snap of the season looks to approach later this weekend into the beginning of next week. Before we get there though, we have a storm system to deal with for this weekend, which will bring rain, strong winds, and perhaps even some snowflakes to the area.
Mild and sunny weather will continue in the short range thanks to a ridge moving over the area, with the warmest days of the week expected tomorrow and Saturday. We should see high temperatures in the upper 50s, with some 60s possible along the shoreline and in the river valley. Generally sunny skies expected, although we could see some clouds move in Saturday afternoon in western areas depending on the timing of the upcoming system. Guidance in good agreement so took a GFS/Euro blend.
A weak system is expected to cut into the Great Lakes Saturday and continue heading north into Canada. Guidance is in good agreement on the formation of a secondary low in our general area on Sunday morning, but there remain some inconsistencies on where it develops and it’s intensity. The GFS places the secondary low over northern New England, keeping most of the rain out of our area, while the Euro develops it over northern CT and MA which results in the heavier band of rain being positioned right over us. Here’s a look at the low placements on the GFS and Euro at 1 AM Sunday morning.
As the strong upper level low begins to exit to our north, it will bring in MUCH colder air in its wake. Expect a sharp drop in temperatures on Sunday as the front passes through. Any lingering moisture that remains will likely flip over to snow showers from north to south throughout the day. The wraparound precipitation from the storm will primarily be confined to our west, but western portions of the state could sneak into the edge of that precipitation shield and see some snow showers throughout the day. We could see accumulations of an inch or two in the Litchfield hills, with just some scattered dustings elsewhere.
Here’s a simulated radar image from the NAM for 4 PM on Sunday. Note that a slight eastward shift of the low placement would bring snow to more of the state – low probability as of right now but we’re keeping an eye on it.
Much colder temperatures are expected, with lows making it down into the upper 20s both mornings (warmer on the immediate shoreline) and daytime highs only making it to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Breezy conditions will also continue into Monday, resulting in below-freezing wind chills throughout the day. Bundle up when you’re heading out and enjoy this first taste of winter!
Another cold morning will give way to warming temperatures throughout the day in advance of our next system that looks to arrive on Thanksgiving Day. It generally looks like we’re going to see a low track to our west before running into the cold air block in place and being pushed east, but where it stops its push north and starts moving east and/or redevelops is right now anyone’s guess. The GFS tends to favor a more progressive solution, while the Euro is more amplified, but at this lead-time, I’m only looking for the presence of a system in the area and expect the details to change. Temperatures will likely be a challenge for those looking for snow as the block looks to be moving out as the storm arrives, which will likely allow just enough warm air into the midlevels to result in a cold rain for the area, but perhaps we can thread the needle and strike the right balance of amplification and blocking to bring some snow to at least interior portions of the state. Stay tuned…
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Sunday: Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with temps falling into the mid 40s by the afternoon hours. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday: Partly cloudy and cold, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and cold, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 40s.
Thursday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Finally, in case you missed it, we released our winter forecast yesterday! Head here to read it.
Have a wonderful weekend and thank you for reading SCW!