After the past couple of weeks have felt like the arctic deep freeze, it’s currently more akin to a muggy July evening outside. Temps are currently ranging from the upper 40s on the immediate shoreline to the low to mid 60s in some inland areas and while the state is currently for the most part in between bands of rain, we should see rain fill back in later in the evening and through the night into tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow will be a day of transition; we’ll likely hit our high temps for the day at midnight tonight and the lows at 11:59 PM tomorrow evening. Early tomorrow morning, a strong cold front comes through and we should see temps fall sharply as it passes through the state. At the same time, the front will quickly shut off precipitation, so not expecting anything significant as far as wintry impacts go with the possible exception of far northwestern areas where cold air will arrive sooner. The primary hazard will be freezing rain as the midlevels will remain warm, but accretions of more than a trace to a few hundredths of an inch are unlikely. That said, it only takes a bit of ice to cause problems, so keep an eye on the thermometer and use caution when travelling tomorrow, especially on untreated surfaces.
Here’s a simulated radar loop from the HRRR for tonight into tomorrow showing the frontal passage and change in precipitation type.
Clear and cold weather for the back half of your holiday weekend, with daytime highs on Sunday stuck around 20 and only getting into the low 20s for Monday. At least we’ll have sunshine though as high pressure remains in control over the area.
Next wintry system potential is in the midweek time frame as an Alberta Clipper swings in from the lakes. Most guidance shows this as a fairly classic clipper sustem that brings a period of light snow to the area, but the Euro is more aggressive and quickly deepens the low once it hits the Atlantic, bringing heavier precipitation into the state along with warmer temperatures, so we would see some mixing issues under that scenario. Given that the Euro is an outlier as of now(although it does have some ensemble support), will lean towards the weaker and colder scenario, but we’ll keep an eye on this one as we move through the weekend and update as things start to get a bit clearer. Tuesday-Wednesday looks like good consensus for light to moderate snows, with any heavier impacts reserved for Wednesday into Thursday. Will carry an all snow forecast through Wednesday and then introduce a chance of rain/snow for Wednesday night into Thursday to give some weight to Euro solution; chance pops throughout the period.
Here's a look at the clipper system on the GFS.
Saturday: Rain transitioning to a wintry mix, then gradually clearing. Highs in the mid to upper 50s, with temps falling into the low to mid 20s by afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 20s.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 20s.
Tuesday: A chance of snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow is 50%.
Wednesday: A chance of snow, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow is 40%.
Thursday: A chance of rain and snow, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Have a great long weekend and thank you for reading SCW!