First off, tonight will see some very cold temperatures. A few of the normally coldest locations may get near zero, with even upper single digits likely for coastal locales. Tomorrow wil see clouds slowly increase well in advance of the aforementioned clipper system. Temperatures will have a different distribution than normal tomorrow, with the northern locations actually close to the same as the coastal locations. This is because clouds will increase ahead of the clipper, and clouds will increase first in the south and southwest. Therefore, temperatures will be fairly uniform across the state, since the “warmer” areas will get cloudy first, and clouds will inhibit temperatures from rising as quickly. Temperatures will not fall much tomorrow night. First off, we have cloud cover expected, which nullifies radiational cooling. Second, we have a southwesterly flow, which transports warmer air into the region. In fact, temperatures may drop the most when snow begins, due to evaporative cooling processes.
Snow will overspread the state from west to east before dawn. Across the west, there could be a quick burst of heavy snow, but all in all, the snow is only expected to last about five or six hours and accumulate just an inch or two. Across the east, heavier totals of 2-4” are expected. The Alberta Clipper will redevelop off Cape Cod during the afternoon hours on Friday. This will cause the snow to last longer into the afternoon there and possibly be heavier as well. It should be noted that depending on exactly when and where this coastal low develops, accumulations in the east could be a bit higher, but no heavy accumulations are expected. As for temperatures on Friday, temperatures may spike up into the mid to upper 30s in areas where snow ends early if the sun can come out. However, by later in the day, temperatures will be falling rapidly as an Arctic cold front approaches. Here's our snowmap for this event.
For Sunday into Monday: Clouds will increase on Sunday, especially in the south, ahead of the next coastal system. Snow should develop late Sunday night across at least the Southern portion of the state. Yesterday’s models were much further north with this system- in fact, so far north that the southern areas would definitely have to worry about precipitation type issues. However, today’s models have largely shifted south, so much so that the northern half of the state is definitely precipitation-free and some light precipitation makes it only to the south coast, if at all. Under this scenario, the precipitation type would definitely be all snow, but precipitation would be a lot lighter. This storm should be easier to forecast than the last one, since it is not a redeveloping storm, and it’s going to be tracking across the United States. However, it is still important to note that this storm system will not be moving into the Southwestern United States until Friday afternoon, and that is when more reliable data would become available. So until that point, we won’t have too much confidence in the ultimate track of the system. Therefore, for forecasting purposes, will go with a chance of snow and layer pops 50 south to 30 north, for the Sunday night into Monday time frame, and keep precipitation all snow for now, as the colder solutions seem to be preferred. As far as temperatures on Sunday, lows should be 10-15 statewide with some high clouds moving in and still breezy conditions limiting radiational cooling. Highs should be pretty uniform as well, pretty close to freezing, due to cloud cover, which will likely be thickest in the south. For Monday’s temperatures, lows will be from the low to mid teens in the north, to the upper teens in the south. Highs will not be a lot warmer than the lows, as cold air filters in. Highs should generally be in the upper teens north, to maybe a degree or so above 20 in the south. Here's a look at highs from Saturday from the GFS model.
FORECAST FOR ALL OF CONNECTICUT:
Tonight… Clear and cold. Lows ranging from a few degrees below zero in the cold spots to the upper single digits on the south coast.
Tomorrow… Increasing cloudiness. Highs within a few degrees of 30..
Tomorrow night… Light snow developing after midnight. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. POP 90.
Friday… Snow ending by dawn in the southwest, tapering down in the afternoon in the Northeast. Snow accumulations: 1-2” West to 2-4” East. Becoming windy late in the day. Early highs in the mid to upper 30s, then temperatures falling rapidly.
Saturday: Sunny, windy, and cold. Lows in the mid to upper single digits. Highs in the mid to upper 20s.
Sunday: Increasing clouds. Lows in the low teens. Highs around freezing.
Monday: A chance of snow, especially along the south coast. Cold. Lows in the mid to upper teens. Nearly Steady temperatures through the day. POP ranging from 50 along the south coast to 30 north.
Tuesday: Clearing, windy, and very cold. Lows 5 below to 5 above. Highs in the mid 20s.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Lows 10 to 20. Highs 30-35.