Steady snow has just about moved out of the state, however, a few snow showers are still possible overnight, especially along the shoreline, so keep an eye out for that if you're out and about at this late hour. In general, snow totals were right in line with the forecast, with the immediate coastline and areas just north and seeing between two and five inches of snow, most of the state seeing between six and ten inches of snow, and areas in the far NW and NE corners of the state seeing between nine and fourteen inches of snow. We also saw some sleet and icing along the shoreline, making for very tricky driving conditions at times. Overall, a relatively well forecast event! A huge thank you to everyone who submitted reports to us during the storm, they are a huge help in giving us ground truth to what we’re seeing on the radar.
Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the forecast period, with highs in the mid 30s expected along with partly sunny skies. This combination of “warm”(We’ll still be below normal, but it’s well above what we’ve been seeing the last several days.) temps and sunny skies will be a rare one over the next several days, so make sure to get out and enjoy it!
Our break from cold will come to an abrupt end on Wednesday as another cold front sweeps in and sends our highs back to the mid 20s, and mostly cloudy skies ahead of our next system will vanquish any hopes of feeling warmed from the sun.
All eyes then turn to Thursday as a clipper system drops out of the Great Lakes towards our area, bringing us a round of light snow Thursday afternoon. Model consensus on this initial clipper impacting us is very high, and thus am comfortable in saying that some accumulating snow is likely for the entire state Thursday afternoon. From the clipper, I expect the highest amounts to be on the shoreline, as they will be closer to the center of the low(which looks to pass under LI), and thus will be able to get into the heavier precipitation, although in general I expect amounts to be light for this portion of the storm. Here's a look at the clipper on the 0z GFS.
I’m leaning towards a further east solution mainly because of the 12z models, the Euro was the only one to not jump west and now at 0z the other guidance has begun to trend back towards it, but I’m not ruling out a more significant event yet. Regardless, accumulating snow from the clipper looks likely Thursday afternoon, making for a potentially messy PM commute. We’ll continue to keep an eye on the models, and will update again as we know more.
Here's a look at the MSLP positions of the GFS and the Euro valid for 7 AM Friday morning. Notice how much further east the Euro is compared to the GFS, which as a result leads to the QPF(not shown due to copyright issues) being placed much further east as a result.
Keep an eye out for another update tomorrow(Tuesday) night with more on Thursdays possible storm along with potentially a first call map depending on confidence, but until then, happy shoveling, stay warm, and thanks for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!