A pleasant evening is on tap for your Valentines Day with clear skies and warm temperatures in the mid 40s across the state, although we may see some showers roll in after midnight in some areas. Enjoy the calm while it lasts though as the extended looks volatile both in terms of storminess and temperatures.
Well above normal temps will be the story of the day tomorrow, with highs in the mid to upper 50s expected. Should remain dry for most of the day, but some showers could start to work into the western portion of the state towards the end of the evening commute and especially later in the evening into the overnight hours.
Cold front passes through the state overnight Thursday into Friday morning and brings a round of showers with it. Precipitation amounts should be relatively light as heavier QPF remains well to our west, but still can’t rule out a couple of isolated heavier cells developing. Otherwise, expect showers ending by mid-morning and another day of warmer temps with highs in the lower 50s.
Much more seasonable weather is on tap to start off your long weekend – highs in the mid to upper 30s and mostly sunny skies expected. Should be an awesome day to be outdoors – great day for skiing, hiking, skating, or any and all outdoor activities!
The second and more interesting system in this forecast arrives Saturday evening as quick moving Arctic energy tracks south of the coastline Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. In a large-scale sense, the eventual storm track will depend on the interactions between and timing of two features; high pressure to our north that’s sliding east and energy coming up from our southwest that will then track nearly due east and out to sea. How far northeast the energy can make it before it begins to slide out to sea will depend on both the amplification of the system(and the amplitude of the trough enabling it to come up the coastline) and the positioning of the high.
One thing that’s tricky about this system is the speed with which it’s moving. Our shortwave of interest won’t come ashore until tomorrow night, and given the frequency which we’ve seen late-stage shifts in the guidance this season, I wouldn’t be comfortable starting to nail anything down until Friday morning when we have a model suite with full sampling and can get a better idea of what we’re working with. As of now, it appears likely that there will be some sort of storm over our area Saturday night, but a range of outcomes ranging from a miss to a snowstorm to a rainstorm are all on the table. We’ll continue to keep an eye on the guidance and keep you updated!
To show the spread in the model solutions, here’s a look at the 18z NAM, GFS and ICON for 1 AM Sunday.
One thing that is certain is that this system is moving very quickly as it is extremely progressive; snow should be out of the state by early Sunday morning and so overall impacts will be comparatively minimal given the duration and timing.
For the rest of Sunday, expect clearing skies and warming temps; highs in the low to mid 40s seem reasonable. There’s a very real chance that most of the snow we see on Saturday could melt away on Sunday, so enjoy it while it lasts!
Next week looks to be dominated by a strong Southeast Ridge which will bring warm air up into the region. The guidance differs somewhat on the magnitude of it, with the GFS keeping temps limited to merely well above normal while the Euro brings a blowtorch into the area with highs potentially approaching the 70 degree mark midweek. For now, will lean towards the less-extreme solutions, but the Euro does have plenty of ensemble support and in a fast pattern with no blocking, we’ve seen some crazy numbers thrown up in the past. As far as precipitation goes, with the Euro solution we would be soundly warm-sectored and thus warm and dry, while the GFS would keep us in the storm track and bring some chances of rain into the forecast. At this lead time, will go with chance pops for rain on Tuesday as a result, but stay tuned for more details…
Here's a look at high temps on the GGEM for Tuesday - the Euro is even warmer!
Thursday: A chance of showers in the morning, then cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%/
Friday: A chance of showers in the morning, then cloudy, with highs in the low 50s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday: A chance of snow late, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday night: Snow likely. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday: A chance of snow early, then clearing, with highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday: Partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Tuesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, warm, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and hot, with highs in the 60s.
We’ll keep you updated on the snow potential for this weekend as we know more, until then, Happy Valentines Day from SCW!