After another mixed mess earlier in the week and warmer temps, we’re heading back towards the colder side of things as the pattern once again becomes active next week. We’re tracking two systems, one for Monday and one for Wednesday into Thursday, and both have the potential to bring wintry weather to the state. Apologies in advance for the lack of images in this discussion - I'm in the middle of nowhere Canada for a ski trip and the internet is borderline unusable.
Sunny with seasonable temps as high pressure prevails over the northeast. Could see clouds to start to build Sunday afternoon, but expect any precipitation to hold off until the overnight hours. High temps should be slightly above normal, translating to the upper 30s to lower 40s, with Sunday being a tick cooler than Saturday. A great weekend to go enjoy all of the new snow that has fallen to our north – ski country did very well this week and conditions should be quite nice!
Weak area of low pressure passes to our south, putting us on the cold side of the system and setting us up for an all snow event. Guidance differs here on the amount of moisture the low carries with it, with the Euro only having a tenth of an inch or so of QPF (equal to about an inch of snow) while the GFS is quite a bit more amped up with around a third to a half of an inch of QPF, enough for 3-5” of snow. As always, something in between the two solutions is probably the eventual outcome, although I would lean slightly towards the GFS solution as it has been steadfast in being more aggressive while the Euro has gradually trended wetter. Either way, not expecting a major storm, but a slower commute on Monday morning (for those who don’t have the day off) appears likely. Snow should start late Sunday night and go through about mid-day Monday on the GFS solution, the Euro solution is more compressed on both ends.
Here’s a look at total snow from the GFS (left) and CMC (right). The CMC solution is similar to the Euro, with the heavier totals being in southern areas on both models as they are closer to the low center. Should we see a trend even further north, we’d shift the heavier totals into northern areas and southern areas would see a mix with rain, but I don’t think that’s likely right now.
Transition day between two systems as we’re under a brief ridge. Clear and sunny, highs a bit below normal in the mid 30s.
A larger, more complex system is on the guidance towards the end of the forecast period. All models agree that the ridging from Tuesday moves up into the classic position to provide cold air damming (and maybe some blocking) for the state, while a stronger system simultaneously moves into the lakes before ultimately developing a secondary low offshore. We’ve seen this story before this winter. While it’s way too early to begin to speculate on amounts, this system does appear to be redeveloping a bit further south than the others have (at least if you believe the guidance) which makes the likelihood for higher snow totals a bit larger than in some of the other systems to date. That said, when you’ve got a low going into the lakes the midlevels naturally want to warm, so under the current guidance depiction this looks like another messy wintry mix event. We’re still quite a ways out from this one though so stay tuned.
Calm and quiet behind the system with near normal temps.
Saturday: Sunny, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Monday: Snow likely, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Wednesday: A chance of snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday: A chance of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid 30s.
We’ll be back tomorrow evening with a first call map for Monday if needed (and with more images and a better internet connection :) ), until then have a great weekend and thanks for reading SCW!