We’ve been stuck in a pattern that seems more like March than May; cool, dreary days with ample precipitation. We’re not quite out of the woods yet, with one more big rainstorm to come this weekend, but there are signs in the long range of a much warmer pattern coming around a week from now!
Another cool and cloudy day expected tomorrow. While precipitation will hold off until Saturday aside from perhaps a quick sprinkle, highs will only be in the mid 50s, and cloud cover will continue to persist.
A significant coastal storm moves up the coastline for the weekend, bringing heavy rain to the state from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. The guidance has differed somewhat on the amount of rain expected, with the Euro backing off significantly on precipitation amounts on the most recent run while the GFS is still very wet, with areas of up to 3” of rain across the region. While the GFS is wetter than the Euro, it did trend east with the surface low, and therefore I will lean towards the drier Euro for the forecast. Regardless, it still looks like a washout from late Saturday afternoon through at least Sunday morning, with showers persisting through Sunday. Should the wetter GFS verify, steady rain would continue through most of the day Sunday, while the drier Euro should give us some breaks in the action throughout the day on Sunday. For now, will lean towards the drier scenario; if you’re trying to get out for some Mothers Day festivities on Sunday, later in the day will give you the best chance of staying dry!
As the coastal storm moves out, we will begin to see a full fledged pattern shift away from the troughy pattern we have seen for all of May so far to a predominantly ridge based pattern, leading to much warmer and drier conditions in the east. A steady warming trend is expected through the middle of the week; highs will be near 60 Monday, near 70 on Tuesday, and in the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday! We will also see a much-awaited return of sunshine, as fair weather will prevail under the ridge throughout the extended.
Here's a look at the overall pattern(notice the strong ridge over our area) and the high temps for Wednesday, both from the GFS.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Saturday: A chance of showers, then showers likely in the afternoon, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain is 80%.
Sunday: Rain in the morning, then gradually ending, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain is 80%.
Monday: Partly sunny, with highs near 60.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low 70s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Happy early Mothers Day to all the moms out there reading! Have a great weekend!