I hope you got outside and enjoyed the beautiful late-spring weather that we had today! We’ve got a hit or miss week coming up – rain tomorrow and cool temps for Thursday, but Wednesday and Friday should both be pretty solid. The holiday weekend looks mostly dry as of right now, but with a lot of shower activity modeled to be in the area, we still need to keep an eye on the guidance in future runs as it’s very much a possibility that we’ll see those showers shift as we get closer in.
A warm front approaches the area tomorrow evening and should carry enough moisture with it to bring some showers to the area tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Not expecting any widespread severe weather, but wouldn’t be surprised to see a garden-variety thunderstorm or two pop up if forcing and moisture coincide. While the chance for showers will be present as early as lunchtime or so, I think greater coverage will be found in the late afternoon into the evening as the front approaches and moisture levels increase. That said, showers should move relatively quickly and so not expecting a washout for any given location. Aside from showers, we should see a mostly cloudy and relatively humid day ahead of the front, with cool temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Quiet weather for the back half of your workweek and into the start of the holiday weekend as high pressure moves overhead and ridging develops. Upper 70s on Wednesday and Friday look likely (Friday could be up into the low to mid 80s for some away from shoreline) while Thursday will be limited to near 70 as a slightly cooler air mass moves through. Sunny skies throughout the period.
Unsettled weather in the region looks likely for the long weekend, but it’s impacts on Connecticut remain unclear. Guidance is split on the scenario for the weekend, with the Euro stalling out a strong cold front over our region bringing showers and thunderstorms while the GFS has a much weaker front but then provides more interaction with tropical moisture to the south. At this lead time, all you can really say with confidence is that there is a chance of some wet weather in the area and that we’ll work out the details over the course of the week; that said, no guidance currently shows a washout for the weekend and it’s likely that there will be at least some sunshine thrown in as well. Best chance of avoiding showers entirely will likely be Saturday as the cold front remains to our north, but will keep relatively low pops for all three days for now until we can get a better look at the scenario for this weekend.
Here’s the setup on the GFS – you can see the cold front to our north and the tropical moisture to our south are keeping us out of the rain for Saturday, but those converge and bring showers to the region in later panels.
Tuesday: A chance of showers, then showers likely late. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Chance of rain is 70%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Chance of rain is 30%.
Sunday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Have a great week and thank you for reading SCW!