It’s been a quiet start to the month of May so far, with near normal temperatures and generally calm skies. However, as an anomalously deep trough moves in, we will see activity pick up over the upcoming forecast period, with multiple precipitation chances expected. The other main feature will be well below normal temperatures next week, with highs modeled to be more like early March than early May.
A frost advisory is in effect for northern areas tonight as good conditions for radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 30s for inland areas. Temperatures will rebound nicely for tomorrow, with highs in the low to mid 60s expected. We’ll start the day with sun, but clouds build in the afternoon ahead of our next system that will impact the area on Friday into Saturday.
A strong cutoff low establishes itself over the Southeast tomorrow evening, allowing for a batch of heavy rain to move north into the area. Guidance is in excellent agreement on the synoptics of the event, and all agree on a heavy rainfall for the area. Expect rain to start off Friday morning, become steadier and heavier throughout the day on Friday, and persist through the overnight before tapering to scattered showers that will last right through Saturday. The Euro is very bullish on precipitation amounts, with 2”+ of rain in parts of the state, while the GFS keeps totals in the 1”-1.5” range for most. Either way you slice it, 1-2” of rain appears likely in a relatively short time, which could lead to some flash flooding concerns Friday afternoon and evening in the usually prone spots. Saturday will not be a total washout, but the day will be mostly cloudy with some showers. At least it will be warm, with highs in the mid to upper 60s!
Some lingering showers will persist through Sunday, gradually diminishing in coverage over the course of the day. For next week, expect mostly sunny skies to start off the week on Monday and Tuesday, but highs will be well below normal as an exceptionally deep trough for the date will be stationed over our area. While the core of the cold will be centered just to our west, I’m still expecting highs in the upper 40s next Monday and Tuesday, which is around 15-20 degrees below normal for the date. Next precipitation chance comes midweek as another system drops in from the north, but at this point that is outside the forecast period and with little consistency on the guidance it’s not worth speculating on at the moment.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Friday: Rain. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Chance of rain is 100%.
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thanks for reading SCW!