A much needed(although perhaps ill-timed) wet end to the weekend is clearing out, and behind it will be a generally quiet week. Warmer weather will start off the week as high pressure builds in behind the system, with highs pushing up into the mid 80s tomorrow despite a weak cold front moving through the area tonight. The warmth is short lived, however, as a second, stronger cold front pushes across the area on Tuesday afternoon, carrying with it the ingredients for some possible severe thunderstorms across the region. Cold pooling aloft, combined with elevated wind shear, should be enough to produce some hail and/or strong winds to accompany any storms that do develop, however, drier air advecting into the area will limit instablility and make it more difficult for those storms to set off. As such, not expecting widespread thunderstorms as of right now, but do think that there is an elevated chance of severe weather with any storms that do develop.
Here's the simulated radar from the 4km NAM for Tuesday afternoon. Notice that the few storms that are in the area are quite strong!
As far as precipitation chances go, a strong shortwave will move into the area for Wednesday, setting off another round of afternoon thunderstorms and showers. For the weekend, general instability is currently modeled to set up to our south, which would reduce the chance of any severe thunderstorms in the area. However, several impressive shortwaves are modeled to come through the flow, meaning that we will likely not escape all shower activity. At this lead time, way too early to be speculating specifics with the timing and location of any scattered showers that do pop up, and so will just paint in a low chance of showers across the weekend for now. The good news is that as of now, the weekend definitely does not look like a washout!
Here are the dailies:
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the low 80s. Some of the storms could be severe. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the low 70s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 60s.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low 70s.
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the low 70s. Chance of precipitation is 25%
Sunday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the low 70s. Chance of precipitation is 25%
Have a great start to your week and thank you for reading SCW!