After a warm start to the week, the last two days have been perfect; sunny skies, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures. The short-term forecast features more of the same, but later in the weekend into next week, we will transition towards a muggier, wetter pattern that will bring several chances of rain to the region.
Comfortable summertime weather continues for the first part of your weekend. Tomorrow will be the warmer day of the two, with highs in the mid 80s, but with low humidity levels, it will still be very pleasant. Most of Saturday will be even better, with temps in the lower 80s and low humidity once again, but we’ll need to watch for clouds and possibly some showers moving in Saturday night ahead of our first system in the period.
Model guidance is in good agreement in bringing energy north along the coast and developing a low-pressure system south of our area, bringing rain and gusty winds for Saturday night into Sunday. Still some uncertainty as to where the core of the system will track (which will determine if we see heavy rains or a lighter, more showery event), but either way it looks like Sunday will be a wet day. The heaviest rain will likely be Saturday night into early Sunday as the system passes overhead, but sufficient moisture and energy remains behind the system to allow for showers to persist through much of the day Sunday.
For the week ahead, our weather pattern will primarily be dominated by a Western Atlantic Ridge building into our area, pushing toughing and cooler weather to our west. While temps will not be exceptionally high, the ridge will do two things to make our weather somewhat unpleasant. First, it will push ocean moisture back into our region, leading to high humidity levels (and therefore higher than average overnight lows despite near-average highs), and second, it will provide an environment that is primed for shower and thunderstorm development. As such, while I don’t expect any single day to be wet from start to end, I do expect that there is a chance for some rain almost any day of next week, and would think that we’ll see some severe storm potential as well if the ingredients align correctly. Otherwise, highs should range through the 80s (possibly high 80s/lower 90s on Tuesday in the usually warmer spots) with nighttime lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Here’s a look at the upper-level ridge and the resulting temp anomalies – notice the core of the colder air further to our west and the ridging allowing warmer air to surge into our region.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with clouds developing late. Highs in the lower 80s.
Sunday: Rain likely, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain is 90%.
Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chance of rain is 50%.
Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain is 50%.
Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain is 50%.
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!