Cool and cloudy weather has been the theme of the week, and while we look to warm up slightly going into the weekend, the skies will likely remain cloudy and potentially unsettled as we track a low pressure system that, depending on it’s track, could bring heavy rain to the area. Generally normal or below normal temperatures look to continue through the forecast period.
Some overnight showers will move out tomorrow morning, leading to a mix of clouds and sun for much of the day. Temps tomorrow will be right around normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Could see a couple of widely scattered showers in the morning, but generally I think we will remain dry.
Low pressure moving through the Midwest into the Mid Atlantic will transition to the coast by Saturday. Rapid deepening will result in an area of heavy rain to the north of the low, and as the latitude of the low will remain relatively consistent, there is flooding potential for the area that gets into that band of rain. As is typical with strong, wrapped up systems, there will be a fairly sharp cutoff, with the distance between a soaking rain and a cloudy afternoon being minimal. For now, model guidance shows that cutoff to be south of our area, meaning that while we will see mostly cloudy skies and cool temps, we would be spared from a washout on Saturday. I do caution though that these systems have a habit of being volatile on guidance up until go time, and if what we saw last winter still holds, they like to come north towards the end. So, I will still maintain a chance of precipitation in the forecast for Saturday, highest along the coastline and lower inland. For Sunday, I will include a slight chance of showers, but the heavy rain threat is primarily confined to Saturday. Highs for the weekend will be below normal, with readings in the low 70s on Saturday and in the upper 70s to around 80 on Sunday.
Here’s a look at this coastal system on the GFS. Notice the band of heavy rain to our south; right now we are only in some light showers, but a small northern shift would get heavy rain into at least part of the state. We’ll keep an eye on the models over the next couple of cycles and update you tomorrow if needed!
The previously mentioned system will slowly sink southeast, but will remain stalled off the coastline into the workweek before it finally pulls away to the east. Therefore, expect clouds and cooler temperatures to prevail at least for Monday and possibly into Tuesday as well. A round of northern stream energy approaches for later in the week; the Euro brings it through on Wednesday while the GFS waits for Thursday into Friday, but both keep it very weak and the result is nothing more than a few showers, and given the lead time, I will keep a dry forecast as it could very well dampen out to nothing but some clouds before we get to verification. Temperatures will be below normal for Monday, slightly below normal for Tuesday, and near or just above normal for later in the week.
Here's a look at that next bit of energy on the GFS.
Friday: Partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: A chance of rain, highest in southern areas, otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%-60% from north to south.
Sunday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday: A mix of clouds and sun, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!