It’s a beautiful summer day across Connecticut, with temperatures uniformly in the mid to upper 70s across the state and mostly sunny skies prevailing. For the rest of the afternoon, we should see clouds building throughout the afternoon, but precipitation will hold off until after dark. Two weak shortwaves will cross the area tomorrow, each bringing an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather returns to end the weekend and start off the workweek.
Clear skies across most of the state will gradually give way to clouds over the course of the afternoon, but we should be precipitation free. Temps should rise another couple degrees from current levels, topping off in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Two distinct shortwaves will cross the state from tonight through tomorrow night, each bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms to the area. The first should come through after midnight tonight and clear the area by midday Saturday, while the second arrives after dark tomorrow. In between, some scattered showers are still possible, but it is likely that most of the state will be dry tomorrow afternoon. Not exepcting any severe thunderstorms, but we could see some pop up cells that bring briefly heavy rain to an area; as of now those look more likely in the second wave of showers Saturday evening and overnight. Otherwise, precipitation totals should be light; a quarter to a half of an inch of rain is a reasonable estimate right now. Highs will be slightly below normal in the upper 70s.
Here's a look at tomorrow's simulated radar on the hires NAM.
Sunday & Monday
High pressure arriving behind the departing shortwaves will bring dry and pleasant weather for the back half of your weekend, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints falling into the 50s by the afternoon. Should see a mix of sun and clouds, trending more towards the sunny side of the equation as the day progresses. Should be a great day to get in a hike, a beach day, or for just lounging around on the patio with a good book and a cold drink! We’ll rinse and repeat for Monday.
Guidance diverges a bit in this period as tropical moisture tries to make its way northward along the coastline. The GFS keeps any precipitation offshore aside from maybe a couple of scattered showers, while the Euro is stronger and further northwest, resulting in a rainy day for Tuesday. For now, I will include a slight chance of precipitation for Tuesday and allow the next forecaster to evaluate if needed, but I don’t expect anything significant to come of this regardless of if we do end up getting a bit wet on Tuesday.
Here's a look at this from the GFS - the Euro is a bit more organized and so tugs some of the precipitation back up into our area, but it looks pretty minor overall.
Following whatever we may see on Tuesday, guidance is in good agreement in a return to high pressure over the area, leading to dry and comfortable weather with near normal temperatures.
Friday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Saturday: Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday: A slight chance of showers early in the morning, otherwise, becoming partly sunny, with high in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!