Currently: Temperatures have warmed pretty nicely this afternoon, but that will soon become a thing of the past. Current analysis shows cold air nudging into CPA from the W. This air will gradually move into our area tonight and certainly into tomorrow. Meanwhile, moisture from former Hurricane Sally should remain to our South., for the most part. However, it does appear this moisture is a bit further N than progged. I'll get into that in the next paragraph.
Tonight: Because moisture from the former Sally is further north than progged, and because we also do have a cold front going through, I have decided to include small chances of light showers or sprinkles in the forecast through the night for the entire state. There could be a round this afternoon and then more overnight, with a break in between, but since the precip, if any, will be very light, there's no need to get real cute with the timing. The only area of the state where I have a concern to have a separate fcst is the SE coast (Srn Middlesex/Srn New London Counties). There could be a pd of steadier light rain there for a few hours tmrw morn (maybe 5-10 AM), as the remnants of Sally make their closest approach.
Tomorrow: Skies will probably then be slower to clear tomorrow than most guidance indicates, and when they do clear, cold air advection will commence. Therefore, I have gone a few degrees below temp guidance tomorrow. High temps will be somewhere in the 60s throughout the state.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Not much to talk about. This will be the theme thru early next week. Sunny, fall-like days, and clear crisp nights will dominate. I went just a couple degrees above guidance on Sat, due to full sun, but if we cont to see smoke from the fires out W this could turn out to be too warm. Since neither I nor comp gdnc are good fcstrs regarding ash in the air, I won't mess with sound met reasoning, and if the smoke hangs ard and this turns out too warm, later crews can refine it. For now, xpct highs genly in the mid 60s, w/a few upper 60s psbl alg the I 91 corridor.
Long Term: The only real chance of precipitation in the long term appears to be later next Wed/Wed night. Since this is day 6.5, my long term discussion will be much shorter than normal and just focus on temps.
For temperature reasoning, I stayed close to guidance most days. I went a couple degrees above guidance on Mon, as it will be the sunniest day of that period, then also on Wed and Thu, as high pressure will then be offshore, allowing for warming, via return flow.
Sunday through Tuesday will be cool, especially the first two days of that period. Wed and Thu will be quite a bit warmer, with the high pressure system shifting offshore.
A frontal passage later Wed could bring a brief chance of showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, little or no precipitation is expected through the period.
As for temperatures, expect highs in the 60s on Sunday, although it is possible that some areas in the northwest hills stay in the 50s! Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s Mon, upper 60s Tue, although a few spots along I 91 could get to 70 on Tuesday. Then for Wed and Thu, xpct highs in the mid to upper 70s Wed and upper 70s Thu. On Thu, it is conceivable that one of the warm spots alg the I 91 corridor gets to 80!
The long range does not look too atypical for this time of year. Some modeling has been hinting at a heat wave between 9/26 and 9/30. How hot we get would depend on the storm to our W. A very strong storm sys that comes closer to the area would blast more warm air into the region. A weaker, farther W low would result in more onshore flow and much cooler temps. Either way, the bets are for abv norm temps during that pd. Thereafter, guidance has been hinting at a strong frontal passage around 9/30, which could have heavy rains with it, followed by another shot of very cool weather. Again, nothing too atypical for this time of yr.
There are no graphics necessary today, because there should be 0.10" or less of total precipitation through the next week! Take care and stay safe!