Currently: Back door cold front has made it all the way to CPA, with high pressure near BOS, which has turned our winds to onshore. This is why today is much cooler than yesterday.
Tonight: Temp guidance generally accepted, w/minor adjustments here or there. Think locations along the immediate S coast could be a little cooler than guidance, w/urban centers a touch warmer, but it's not worth making big changes over. Lows generally 50-55.
Tomorrow: Again temp guidance generally accepted. It seems to do a good job recognizing the diff between inland and the shoreline. Temps may be much cooler along the immediate shore. Highs range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Some locations along the immediate coast could struggle to make 70!
Tomorrow Night/Sat: We could see two rounds of rain during this period, w/sun in between. But at this time, it seems like models are having a difficult time latching on to the timing of the showers. For now, I feel like we'll get scattered coverage late tomorrow night, w/the warm front, then very little to no coverage most of the day Sat, then scattered to numerous later in the day w/instability & prefrontal trough. I could be way too low w/temps, but I went a few deg below guidance, in case it is cloudier than NBM indicates, since guidance seems to be trending that way. However, like I said, if I bust, I'll probably be too cool, since the sun angle is very strong this time of yr. Anyhow, I have temps again showing a wide discrepancy between the S coast and inland. A general avg is mid to upper 70s, but the range will likely be bigger than that.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): Main chances for convection, as well as our hottest days, should be both Sun and Wed.
For Sun, we're in the warm sector and we warm up nicely. I've taken a couple deg off guidance only because I don't want to be super aggressive and then we stay cloudy too long, but I already have highs generally 80-85, w/mid to upper 80s along I 91. It is not impossible for locations along I 91 to reach 90! A cold front approaches later Sun. However, for now, I have kept chances at slight chance, due to lack of moisture and bad frontal timing. Any precip probably waits until Sun night, when diurnal stabilization will be well underway.
For Mon, I'll generally accept temp guidance for the most part, which has highs near 70 statewide. The only adjustment I'll make is to go 70-75 near I 91, since there should be a few sunny breaks and that area warms well. Generally mostly cloudy, as frontal zone stalls to our south, close enough to keep clouds over the region.
For Tue, The front tries to pulse north a little bit. It doesn't get close enough to the area to really go thru or anything, but it could be close enough to just graze the area with a shower, esp the S coast, so a slight chance has been added. I went way below guidance w/more clouds expected than NBM interprets. Highs generally mid 60s, except the I 91 corridor where I have 65-70. (Now watch that front trend back S and I am too cool!)
For Wed, for now, staying a couple deg below NBM guidance, only to be conservative, and generally tick the temps upward w/time, which is general forecasting convention. Temps avg out in the low 80s, but there will be a big discrepancy between inland, (esp the I 91 corridor, where I have mid to upper 80s), and the S coast, which may not make 80. I have basically two slight chances of showers/storms on Wed. First, in the AM, then at night, with first the warm frontal passage, and then the cold frontal passage. But don't think it will be a rainy day- it may not rain either time. There isn't a ton of moisture avail, plus both fronts have kinda bad timing for climo instability.
For Thu, new guidance has the front lingering nearby, which could be true, as fronts tend to slow down, as they move into ridges. If this happens, there would be showers and thunderstorms lingering into Thu AM. For now, I have only a slight chance in the fcst, because this is a new development, and there's no reason to go crazy with it. I also went a couple deg under temp guidance, due to more clouds. But once again, we'd be a bit warmer if the sunk further S. (OF course, if it moved WAY S, we'd be cooler again, so this may be a good call either way!) Anyway, temps look pretty uniform w/a stronger wind flow, and mid to upper 70s seems reasonable thruout the state.
In the long range, the general temp pattern continues. It looks like we'll avg a bit above norm. Most days should be close to norm, but every 3-5 days, it looks like one day gets very warm to hot. This conveys a general avg to a bit above norm regarding temps. In addition, it seems like a boundary should be near the area much of the time, leading to increased chances of storms. We can use the rain!
I don't have a ton of time for graphics today, and there isn't really any solid storm that's guaranteed in the next 7 days. The best chances for measurable rain are probably late Sat/Sat night. Take care and see you next week!