I am back after a few weeks on the road in the Midwest. It was a fun time. I learned a great deal and received an A in the course!
I am excited to return to write a real summer forecast!
Folks, between the rain and the cool temperatures, we’ve suffered for far too long. If you love summer like me, the next few days are for you. Hopefully, you are able to enjoy the beach, lake, backyard pool, or the ice cream! Let’s get down to business.
Currently there are clouds pushing their way through the state. We’re off to a warm and humid start in most places, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the low 60s. Remember, the higher the dew point, the more humid it will feel outside.
These clouds will have little impact on temperatures today, and I expect today to be the first day of what will likely be our second heat wave (3 consecutive days of 90+ temperatures) of the year. It is still unclear whether coastal locations will see a heat wave, but I expect this to be the shoreline’s warmest period of the season so far.
Today will be hot and humid, but with a stiff breeze, today won’t be unbearable in my opinion. We’re only getting started though.
One more thing before talking about the rest of the week: if you are heading to the beach, especially in Long Island, be aware of the moderate rip current risk predicted today. Always make sure you are aware of your surroundings and in hailing distance of lifeguards!
As warm as today will get, tomorrow and Tuesday will be deep summer days. A strong and well placed ridge will dominate our weather, bringing westerly flow. This is how we tend to get some of our hottest days, and with very warm 850mb temperatures, big heat (temperatures over 95 degrees) is a possibility in our typical torch spots inland.
Tuesday is a day I am definitely starting to get interested in. It will be another hazy, hot, and humid day, and if you remember what I said in our severe weather primer a month ago, sometimes heat waves end with a bang as a new temperature regime enters the region.
Well, Tuesday could be that day as a cold front and attendant shortwave roll through the region. Let’s take a minute to do a bit of an analysis here.
First—note that in the severe weather world, you can’t quite predict the small scale features terribly far out. Particularly in a place like New England, the best analysis happens on the day of.
Well, a couple of things stand out to me. First, there is good instability in the area. You look at the sounding and the numerical indicies below it, and you see very solid surface (SFC) based CAPE. Most important to me however is ML or Mean Layer CAPE. MLCAPE is important to me because I think it is generally the most accurate way to gauge instability throughout the important part of the column. CINH is low--which means that there isn't much capping that would prevent convection from forming. Lapse rates, which measure the rate at which temperature decreases with height are decent to good.
Looking at storm relative helicity (SRH), shear, and how the winds turn with height leaves something to be desired though, reducing the chances of storms developing well defined spin. With this basic (and initial) analysis, I think we're looking at scattered strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday which have wind and hail as the biggest hazards.
We go back to boring after the front clears Tuesday evening. Wednesday and Thursday currently look like beautiful days, with highs dropping down to the upper 70s to low 80s, lower humidity, and sunny skies. Great days to be outdoors!
Sunday: Hot and humid with clearing skies. Highs in the upper 80s at the shore to low 90s inland.
Monday: Hazy, Hot, and Humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s at the shore.
Tuesday: Hazy, Hot, and Humid, with a chance of storms by late afternoon. Some storms may be strong to severe. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s at the shore. Chance of thunderstorms 40%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, cooler, and less humid. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 30%.
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Have a great week!