Simply put, the week ahead could be a boring one, or an interesting one. Early on in this first week of October, we deal with the possibility of showers, and by the end of the week, we’re either closely watching Matthew, or soaking in the sun.
The last few days have been cloudy and wet, as a cutoff low has been spinning around in our region. Monday looks like more of the same, as the low makes its way eastward. I am expecting scattered showers in the state tomorrow afternoon though the evening, so it is another umbrella day. Not everyone will see rain, but unfortunately, clouds are a lock.
By Tuesday, the clouds are set to begin moving away, and things will clear as the day progresses. It’ll be the first time some people see sun in quite some time! Overall, temperatures are close to normal with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Honestly, no need to waste time and space. Ridging builds in (which may be very important to Matthew’s track) and we’re back to quiet during this period. Expect sunny and seasonable days and cool evenings during this entire period.
No need to waste much space on next weekend either. By the end of the week, all eyes will (or will not) be focused on Matthew. Currently, major hurricane Matthew is a category four storm that has begun its turn north in the Caribbean. Nothing has substantially changed from my last post, which I encourage you to read.
I still favor an out to sea track, but this hurricane bears watching—just casual watching for now. I don’t think the guidance will be in a position to really give us a sense of what will happen until Matthew clears Cuba and Haiti early next week. I cannot emphasize this enough--do not get caught up in any of the solutions models are showing right now. Things will change and change dramatically between individual runs and model suites.
- Major Hurricane Matthew is a very strong hurricane in the Caribbean, and has begun its turn toward the Greater Antilles.
- I still expect there to be fluctuations in Matthew's strength over the next two days, with some weakening as it tracks near or over the mountainous area of Cuba or Haiti.
- I expect a strong system to reach the Bahamas by early next week.
- Any track forecast past the Bahamas at this point is highly uncertain, and it will be days until we better resolve the pieces that will determine what type of system will approach the US coast, if at all. Currently, I favor a track out to sea.
- As is normal during hurricane season, everyone should take the opportunity to check your preparedness plan, if you haven't already (and you should have!).
- This is a system to watch closely, but there is absolutely no reason to panic or lock in any type of impact on Connecticut. This system will have hype associated with it, but we are way too far out in time to do anything but watch.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy early with a slight chance of showers. Clearing by afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain early 20%.
Wednesday: Sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday: Sunny and warmer. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Friday: Sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the low 70s.
Saturday: SCW Period of Interest. Otherwise sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday: SCW Period of Interest. Otherwise sunny with highs in the upper 60s.