Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
As many of you know, I am a bit under the weather today, so forgive me for the shorter than usual discussion! Thank you all for your well wishes!
Like we mentioned earlier in the week, this setup is complex. In order to avoid confusion it makes the most sense to just take things one step at a time.
For the map below, we think most people end up on the lower end of our snow zones, however, for reasons explained below we wanted to keep the upper end in place in case some locations over performed.
As many of you know, I am a bit under the weather today, so forgive me for the shorter than usual discussion! Thank you all for your well wishes!
Like we mentioned earlier in the week, this setup is complex. In order to avoid confusion it makes the most sense to just take things one step at a time.
For the map below, we think most people end up on the lower end of our snow zones, however, for reasons explained below we wanted to keep the upper end in place in case some locations over performed.
Tonight/Wednesday
Tonight, snow is falling again across portions of the state. This is associated with another piece of energy that will be moving through our region over the next day. As it moves through our region, the unorganized system will bring the chance of light snow to the state tonight through most of tomorrow. It looks like this will be a light snowfall for most. Unlike consolidated storm systems that bring consistent snow over a period of hours, this should bring more of a light to moderate period of snow that occurs off and on.
However…
Watch out. As Greg said last night, trying to target the timing of the snow Wednesday and Thursday and the placement of the steadier and heavier snow is very difficult. The energy pushing through combined with the instability in the column above the surface will create conditions for heavy snow bursts to potentially pop up. If that occurs, we’re talking about another over performer, which is exactly why we surprised many when we put our map out last night and it had a 6 spot on it when looking at the shoreline. Any snow totals over our general outline should be isolated.
Given the kind of situation we are dealing with, knowing exactly where snow pops up (and more importantly, stays) is very difficult. Everyone should be prepared for the chance of snow and icy conditions, especially tomorrow morning. The shoreline stands to bear the lions share of the snow that falls. I think widespread cancellations are unlikely tomorrow and Thursday, but delays are possible in places where snow sets up early in the morning. Coastal Connecticut is most likely to see delays and cancellations if they occur.
Let’s take a look at the short range guidance, which I think has a decent (but not great) handle on the precipitation potential tomorrow and Thursday.
Tonight, snow is falling again across portions of the state. This is associated with another piece of energy that will be moving through our region over the next day. As it moves through our region, the unorganized system will bring the chance of light snow to the state tonight through most of tomorrow. It looks like this will be a light snowfall for most. Unlike consolidated storm systems that bring consistent snow over a period of hours, this should bring more of a light to moderate period of snow that occurs off and on.
However…
Watch out. As Greg said last night, trying to target the timing of the snow Wednesday and Thursday and the placement of the steadier and heavier snow is very difficult. The energy pushing through combined with the instability in the column above the surface will create conditions for heavy snow bursts to potentially pop up. If that occurs, we’re talking about another over performer, which is exactly why we surprised many when we put our map out last night and it had a 6 spot on it when looking at the shoreline. Any snow totals over our general outline should be isolated.
Given the kind of situation we are dealing with, knowing exactly where snow pops up (and more importantly, stays) is very difficult. Everyone should be prepared for the chance of snow and icy conditions, especially tomorrow morning. The shoreline stands to bear the lions share of the snow that falls. I think widespread cancellations are unlikely tomorrow and Thursday, but delays are possible in places where snow sets up early in the morning. Coastal Connecticut is most likely to see delays and cancellations if they occur.
Let’s take a look at the short range guidance, which I think has a decent (but not great) handle on the precipitation potential tomorrow and Thursday.
RGEM between 1am Wednesday and 10pm Thursday. Note that the precipitation shield is disorganized and not every hour has snow falling over the state. This speaks to the disorganized and potentially convective nature of the snow showers/squalls.
Over the course of the day Wednesday, temperatures will rise above freezing, limiting the impact of the snow on roads. Although snow will likely continue off and on with these temperatures, anything that falls heavily could fall fast enough to stick.
Thursday
Thursday brings a diminished but continued chance of snow, as the first of two Arctic fronts pushes through. This is the beginning of our Arctic blast. Like Wednesday, it will not snow everywhere all the time, but you should be prepared for any snow showers or squalls that fall in your area to provide a quick coating or light accumulation.
Over the course of the day Wednesday, temperatures will rise above freezing, limiting the impact of the snow on roads. Although snow will likely continue off and on with these temperatures, anything that falls heavily could fall fast enough to stick.
Thursday
Thursday brings a diminished but continued chance of snow, as the first of two Arctic fronts pushes through. This is the beginning of our Arctic blast. Like Wednesday, it will not snow everywhere all the time, but you should be prepared for any snow showers or squalls that fall in your area to provide a quick coating or light accumulation.
The high resolution NAM, showing the progression of precipitation chances the next two days. Again, note the streamers of snow that push through the state during the day on Thursday as cold air rushes in. The snow may be overdone, but it illustrates the right large scale progression.
Friday
By the time Friday rolls around, the active week finally quiets down and we see a mostly sunny day! The Arctic hammer is en route however, and temperatures across the state look to be below freezing. It is a nice day, but here comes the BOOM…
President’s Day Weekend
Warning: advert your eyes if you hate the cold.
Friday
By the time Friday rolls around, the active week finally quiets down and we see a mostly sunny day! The Arctic hammer is en route however, and temperatures across the state look to be below freezing. It is a nice day, but here comes the BOOM…
President’s Day Weekend
Warning: advert your eyes if you hate the cold.
GFS projection of the cold. Much of CT will be below zero on Sunday and all of the state will be below freezing for a period of days.
The story of the weekend are the temperatures. The Arctic express makes it’s way to the east coast of the US, and the heart of the cold arrives Saturday and Sunday. By Sunday, the entire state could be well below zero, with wind chills even lower. Wind Chill Advisories and Warnings are possible—and I would say likely. This is potentially dangerous cold on Saturday night/Sunday morning, but it can be handled if you take the proper precautions—make sure you dress warmly, wear plenty of layers, be cognizant of how long you are outside, and make sure to keep your pets inside!
Fortunately, this cold shot—while longer and colder than anything we’ve faced since last February (which was an exceptionally cold month) will be relatively short lived, and we return to below normal, but seasonably cold temperatures, next week.
We will be watching the potential of a coastal storm for the weekend or early next week. Anything looks like a miss right now, but we will be watching closely.
Let’s take a closer look at the brutal cold this weekend. Temperatures will not necessarily be this cold, but if you are a frigidaire, save these images. We don’t see this too often around here.
The story of the weekend are the temperatures. The Arctic express makes it’s way to the east coast of the US, and the heart of the cold arrives Saturday and Sunday. By Sunday, the entire state could be well below zero, with wind chills even lower. Wind Chill Advisories and Warnings are possible—and I would say likely. This is potentially dangerous cold on Saturday night/Sunday morning, but it can be handled if you take the proper precautions—make sure you dress warmly, wear plenty of layers, be cognizant of how long you are outside, and make sure to keep your pets inside!
Fortunately, this cold shot—while longer and colder than anything we’ve faced since last February (which was an exceptionally cold month) will be relatively short lived, and we return to below normal, but seasonably cold temperatures, next week.
We will be watching the potential of a coastal storm for the weekend or early next week. Anything looks like a miss right now, but we will be watching closely.
Let’s take a closer look at the brutal cold this weekend. Temperatures will not necessarily be this cold, but if you are a frigidaire, save these images. We don’t see this too often around here.
The above images--European and GFS images from WeatherBell Analytics show temperature and windchill projections during the weekend. You can see each product from the very top of each image.
Bottom line, expect periods of snow over the next two days and exceptionally cold temperatures by the weekend.
Thank you for reading, sharing our discussions, and being part of the SCW family. We have reached over 15,000 followers now, and it is an honor to forecast for each and every one of you.
Signing off from my sickbed. Onward and upward with your love and support.
-DB
Bottom line, expect periods of snow over the next two days and exceptionally cold temperatures by the weekend.
Thank you for reading, sharing our discussions, and being part of the SCW family. We have reached over 15,000 followers now, and it is an honor to forecast for each and every one of you.
Signing off from my sickbed. Onward and upward with your love and support.
-DB
