Currently: Warm front approaching the area, right near NYC right now. This warm front was responsible for the AM rains. As the air mass becomes warmer and more humid, thunderstorms are currently igniting to our SW and will propagate into the area later.
Tonight: A line of showers and thunderstorms appears likely for the entire state, during the evening SW CT and later at night NE CT. Any storms could produce heavy rain, but most of the strong and severe storms should stay to our SW. As far as temps, guidance is generally accepted w/a few tweaks here and there. Lows generally in the 60s.
Tomorrow: Sun to start, then scattered to numerous t-storms with the heat of the day W CT, and just scattered E CT. I've gone about 5 deg below guidance for two reasons- first, I don't think we ever get fully warm sectored, and secondly, we're probably cloudier than most of the NBM members are indicating. So look for highs near 70.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Lingering convection probably clears the area before midnight tomorrow night. Sat is a generally warm to very warm and sunny day. There is a very low prob (10-20%) of a t-storm in the afternoon in the NW Hills. But probability is too low to include in the fcst. I believe NBM guidance is too aggressive warming the area up, esp given antecedent wet soil conditions, so I subtracted a few deg. This still gets most of the state at or above 80, with mid 80s along the I 91 corridor, and upper 70s S coast.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): Like a typical summertime fcst, the main concerns in the long term are heat and convection.
For Mon, I went close to guidance on temps w/a few local adjustments. High temps generally range from mid 80s S coast to low 90s most of the state. It wouldn't be inconceivable to see a 93 or 94 along the urban valleys on I 91.
For Tue, much of the same regarding temps as Mon. The only diff is probably less of a sea breeze. So you can probably expect upper 80s all the way to the S coast! I kept the day part dry during Tue, as it looks like convection stays well to our S & W during the day Tue. This convection, scattered to numerous t-storms will arrive Tue night, and probably sustain itself reasonably well into the night, given how hot Tue will be.
For Wed, there could be several rounds of convection- one early AM, ongoing from Tue night, one w/the heat of the day, and another late at night, w/the actual frontal passage. It is generally an exercise in futility to try to time lines of convection on day 2, let alone day 6, so we'll just word the fcst as a chance of showers and storms. It is very possible that any storms are drenching, given what appear to be very high precipitable water levels. Temps are tricky on Wed. It isn't going to rain all day. There will likely be breaks of sun. On the other hand, the NBM guidance looks like it is basically expecting full sun, which likely won't happen, either. So I have gone about 3-5 deg lower than NBM guidance, which would mean generally low 80s for highs. Areas that get sun, esp areas that are favored to warm, could easily surge in to the mid and upper 80s. Areas that stay cloudier and/or get a sea breeze may struggle to get past 80.
For Thu, we clear out and dew points lower- a nice late spring/early summer day. I went just a deg or two below temp guidance, since it tends to not recognize cold (or warm) air advection at day 7. There is a pretty good cold air advection signal at that range. So highs will be generally within a few deg of 80 w/plenty of sun and no chance at any precip.
In general, the long range looks fairly normal for the time of yr. There will be times where we get hot and the Bermuda ridge flexes its muscle. There will be nicer, drier days w/cooler temps and much lower dew points. In between, it will be convectively active.
All is quiet on the tropics.
Although storms tonight (and tomorrow, to a lesser extent), could contain heavy downpours, there isn't much of a flood threat, since river tables are low. Any flooding will be urban/small stream type and nuisance type. HOWEVER, should a flash flood warning be issued for your area, heed the warning and do not drive around barricades or thru flooded roadways. Do not drive thru water of unknown depth, esp at night!
Now, let's look at a couple graphical images of some convective shots on the way. The first is tonight and the next is next Tue-Wed.
This image shows tonight's convection. Although the real heavy stuff is offshore, scattered to numerous storms are ongoing across CT.