Currently: Warm high pressure dominating the Eastern CONUS, from Quebec to Georgia, to Bermuda. A few VERY isolated, weak thunderstorms are possible today, but overall, a dry day, at least in terms of precip.
Tonight: We may be able to radiate a little, despite the warm air mass, so I went a touch below guidance. Even so, it is likely the whole state struggles to even get to 70 deg for lows.
Tomorrow: I went a few deg below guidance, as the NBM really likes to go to town on hot days, but I didn't go way under. Still mid to upper 80s throughout the state, w/a chance a few places touch 90. Convection chances will slowly increase during the day, but I think most of the day stays dry, w/better chances for storms at night.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Went a few deg below guidance on Sat's temps, as NBM probably underdoing cloud cover. There really is the chance of a t-storm at any time. There will be a slight chance in the morning, ramping up to likely around dark and continuing thru the night. Any storm could be severe, and heavy rain is a threat, as well. Flooding is not too much of a concern, since storms should be moving, but training is possible, and if this happens, local flooding concerns will be possible. Highs generally in the low 80s, but w/very high humidity.
Long Term: Sun and beyond: Biggest challenge during this period will be determining where the boundary sets up, because this will likely determine where the storms set up. I will likely be wrong at least one of these days, but this is my best effort.
For Sun, the boundary is still nearby, so we probably get at least scattered coverage of t-storms during the day, w/diurnal heating being the prime hours. My fcst assumes a front about 150 mi S of the NBM guidance, so I have gone way under. I have highs only in the mid 70s for Sun.
For Mon, went significantly below guidance again, due to expected onshore flow. It is possible the front clears far enough S that we don't have any storms Mon. Highs should be in the mid to upper 70s.
For Tue, the front bubbles back north, bringing warmer temps and higher humidity. Temps fairly close to guidance in the low 80s. Isolated to scattered storms possible w/the front nearby.
For Wed, uncertainty this far out, so went a touch under guidance to maintain continuity. Highs again generally low 80s, except upper 70s for S coast and NW hills. Front begins to wash out, so just widely isolated storms, at least that's what it looks like right now!
For Thu, obviously some uncertainty at day 7, but ridging could build in at least temporarily, giving us a nice dry day. Went close to guidance on temps, w/no big reason to differ 7 days out. Generally low 80s again, with some cooler numbers NW hills and S coast.
The long range may show trending toward a calming of the daily thunderstorms, w/a return to a more "normal" pattern of a front every 3-5 days. However, there are still hints that those fronts can stall, given blocking in SE Canada and ridging offshore, giving fronts nowhere to go.
No time for graphics today, but other than t-storms, not much going on, and not too many ways to show that over and over again!
See ya next week - GP!