Currently: The state remains in the cool sector, with the warm front over CNJ and low pressure over BOS. We're also in a more stable sector for now, so it is not precipitating anywhere in the state.
Tonight: The warm front will approach the area, but probably never make it here. This means rain will develop later in the evening for most of us. For Western CT, categorical pops (80-100%) are being used. For Eastern CT, N of I 84, 60% POPS will be used. For SE CT, only 30% POPS will be used, as maritime stable air can hold on longer there. As for temps, w/a warm front approaching, I went a touch above guidance. Expect temps generally 50-55 tonight.
Tomorrow: Another very confusing day in terms of layering timing and distribution of POPs, as this will depend on the positioning, movement, and eventual decay, of a frontal zone near the area. So I will regionalize my ideas here. For SW CT, I have 80% or so POPs for the AM hours, then cut it off dramatically around noon. For NW CT, I have similar POPS- near 100 in the AM, then lower to 30 in the afternoon. The main difference there is, I linger small chances into the afternoon. For NE CT, I linger near 100 POPs thru much of the day, then taper them off to 30% for the first part of tomorrow night. Finally, for SE CT, I just have 30 POPS all day- thinking the marine layer there may still dissipate most of the precip. W/uncertainty regarding precip comes uncertainty regarding temps. Due to precip, marine flow, and the fact that the warm front has struggled to make it north today, I have gone considerably lower than NBM guidance. Expect most highs in the upper 50s... although I do have some lower 60s in the Western half of the state, where there could be some brightening late in the day.
Tomorrow night/Thu: Finally a break. Thu is the only day on models (altho Sat is close- will get to that later) where there is no pcpn on any models. I have gone fairly close to guidance, as a result. Most highs should be 60-65 degrees, with maybe a corridor of 65+ along I 91.
Long Term (Fri and beyond): The unsettled pattern continues. A coastal low will pass well offshore Fri. As this happens, a trough will approach the east coast. The low offshore will be close enough to enhance moisture for the trough. Therefore, steady rain is anticipated. Rain should develop Fri night across Wrn CT and end there around dawn. E of I 91 or so, rain develops in the wee hours Sat and lingers until noon. South of 84, expect gradual clearing thru the day. As an upper level low traverses the Mass Pike, expect a chance of showers/storms to linger N of I 84 during Sat afternoon, w/diurnal destabilization. For Fri's temps, I went close to guidance, w/most places seeing highs around 60. I went a couple deg below guidance for Sat's temps- highs generally near 60 deg, except in the mid 50s N of 84. Always go cooler near an upper level low!
For Sunday and Monday, disturbances will ride around a stalled out front south of the Mason-Dixon line. There is uncertainty regarding Sunday's wave as to how far the precip will get, so POPs can be layered from 60-70% along the S coast to near zero north of I 84. The whole baroclinic zone looks to bubble north by Monday, so that everyone should be in high POPs by then. As for temps, I went about 5 deg lower than NBM guidance for Sun to compensate for the area being in the cold sector. Then on Mon, I took about 8 deg off guidance. This yields temps in the mid to upper 50s both days, for the most part.
Finally, by Tue, we should clear out. A cold front clears the region Mon nite and dries us out for Tue. Guidance generally accepted. Expect highs of 60-65 for Tues.
In the long range, there really are no signs of any pattern reversal for the next 2-3 weeks. So don't expect any major heat waves or dry spells any time soon.
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems slated to affect the area in graphical form. We'll start with tonight/tomorrow AM's rain, and then I'll show later Fri-Sat. The Sun-Mon waves remain further out, so we'll let that go for the time being. This image shows a good slug of rain headed toward the area. However, temps are much cooler and winds are onshore in our area, which tends to have a weakening effect on frontal lines.