Currently: Cold front now approaching I 90. This front will be the focal point for unsettled wx the next few days.
Rest of today into tonight: Showers and storms will be ongoing, on and off, through the period. Some storms could contain heavy downpours. As for the severe threat, most of that should remain S of the area, but the air mass is conditionally unstable, so a rogue stronger cell can not be totally ruled out. Guidance was generally followed for temps, w/local adjustments here and there. Lows generally in the upper 60s.
Tomorrow: Another unsettled day, although models are struggling exactly what to do w/the various features affecting our wx. It seems the best shot for heavy rain and convection tomorrow will be later in the afternoon and early evening (not surprising, given the time of yr). Although SPC does not have any severe potential for the area, I would not rule out strong storms IF we can get some sun, something to keep an eye on! W/the backdoor front probably thru most of the area, I have gone well below guidance on temps. Expecting temps to only rise a few deg during the day tomorrow.
Tomorrow night/Sat: There will definitely be times of sun on Sat, but w/the combo of a frontal wave offshore and a ULL spinning overhead, there will at least be isolated storms if not more. Convection will likely be diurnal, as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere. I've gone several deg cooler than guidance w/a ULL overhead w/a cool pool aloft combined w/onshore flow. It could actually feel a bit chilly, w/temps hovering in the mid 60s!
Long Term: Most unsettled wx will be at at the beginning and end of the long term period, w/hot wx in between.
First, For Sun, I still went quite a bit below guidance. I still can't see us warming up on mainly SE winds. Doesn't work like that! Temps probably still hanging around 70 for highs one more day. The chance for t-storms in the afternoon is not zero, but is probably quite low to bother including in the fcst.
For Mon, went closer to guidance temps, but still shaved off a few deg, due to still mainly S flow. Humidity begins to rise. Temps much warmer too! We get near 80! I have no pcpn in the fcst right now for Mon, but scattered to numerous storms are probable Mon night ahead of a warm front.
For Tue, out of caution, since the NBM seems warmer than most anything, I went just a deg or two below what it shows. But it certainly is not impossible we overperform, as the heat as done this summer across most of the country. For now, I have mid to upper 80s across the state. I'd rather have this tweaked higher w/future consensus than flip-flopping. I have kept the day dry for Tues, after any morning activity w/the warm front pulls out. There could be an isolated storm later on, after dark.
For Wed, guidance temps look fine from this far out. Temps similar to whatever happens on Tue, maybe a deg cooler. Uncertainty begins to increase here regarding the timing of an approaching cold front and interaction w/Elsa. Obviously, timing between these two features will determine what impacts, if any, Elsa has on the area. I have inserted scattered t-storms by later in the day, as one or the other should be approaching the area by then.
For Thu, most guidance does have some type of impact from Elsa here. For now, at this time, given that we're a week out, I'm not going to hype anything. I think the best course of action for fcst purposes would be to go with chance pops in the 30-40% range and insert breezy into the fcst, since even a scrape would create breezy conditions. We can use that as a starting point and then go from there. I've also shaved quite a bit off NBM guidance. If we assume at least fringe effects from Elsa, clouds, showers, and NE flow will not allow those kind of temps to happen. So went with mid to upper 70s for now. This seems like a good compromise starting point, between fair wx temps and temps that would be much lower for full-blown impacts and this leaves room for future crews to adjust one way or the other.
Right now, just glancing at the long range, it looks to feature avg to above avg temps. As far as pcpn, that will depend on positioning of various frontal boundaries. Models often struggle w/this, but at this range, it looks like we could trend a bit "less" unsettled.
I haven't posted graphics for this weekend's convective chances, because models don't really display that very well. I have, however, posted the NHC's track regarding Elsa. After it hits Florida, it does look a bit interesting, as almost all guidance has it making a bend North.