Currently: The cold front is now passing thru the Delmarva. High pressure is building into the Great Lakes. Low pressure was over Labrador. The gradient between the high and the low is producing gusty winds. This gradient will likely continue, due to a parade of low pressure systems passing out to sea, but the gradient should be a little weaker by Sat or so.
Tonight: I'll go a bit below guidance, but not because of radiational cooling. Winds stay up thru the nite. So the reason for going below guidance is strong cold air advection. But I'll only go a couple deg lower than guidance. So lows should generally be in the upper teens.
Tomorrow: Will just follow guidance for temps. A cold and breezy day. Highs generally in the mid 30s, except closer to 30 NW hills and Litchfield Hills.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Wx status quo. Breezy and cold, with no real day to day changes. Again followed close to guidance, w/local adjustments. Highs in the mid 30s, except near 30 in the Northern hills away from Hartford. There is a small chc flurry NW hills, but the chc is too low to mention in the fcst.
Long Term: Nothing really going on. Temps follow a warming trend. Only discernable chc of measurable precip comes Thu w/a strong frontal passage.
Sunday: Followed close to temp guidance. Winds finally diminish. Temps similar to past few days, if not a couple deg warmer.
Monday: High pressure moves overhead, so we begin to warm. Temp guidance was generally followed, w/a few local adjustments. Highs should be in the low 40s.
Tuesday: As high pressure passes offshore, we should warm rapidly. Just as models are usually too warm on temps when colder air moves in, they are also usually too cold on temps when warm air moves in. So I prepped the extended fcst by going a couple deg warmer than guidance. Look for highs in the low to mid 50s. If we have full sun, it could be even warmer than that along the I 91 corridor!
Wednesday: With a Bermuda-like ridge setting up to our E, I continued the trend of going 2 or 3 deg warmer than temp guidance. Looks like a sunny day, maybe w/some increasing clouds later in the day. Highs reach the upper 50s. There could very well be local effects, like sea breezes along the S coast, or enhanced heating in the CT valley. However, modeled wind speeds are often not very good at day 5. So we can refine temps for local effects as we get closer.
Thursday: For temps, basically followed temp guidance, w/a few local adjustments, since we're at least going to see an increase in clouds ahead of the cold front. For now, going w/low POPs for just showers. Way too early to tell if we'll get Gulf moisture involved, which would make the front juicier, or we'll trend even drier. So this is the smart way to play it, for now.
Long Range: It does look more active in the long range, as it appears the STJ will become more active. Way too early to tell if there are any more wintry events in the pattern as of now, but I do see the potential for a more active STJ and variable temps, so we'll see.
That's all for now, enjoy the week!