Currently: Remnants of Zeta were located over Southern VA. A new upper level low was over the TN Valley. That low will spawn a new coastal, which could spell some accumulating snow for the interior regions tomorrow.
Tonight: Generally just going to call it periods of rain. There may be a brief break in the rain between 10 PM and 3 AM or something like that, but given the fact that the break is short and there could still be showers or drizzle inside the break, I don't feel it necessary to go too crazy with that. The 1st rd of pcpn is Zeta, the 2nd round will be from a dvlpg coastal low. I will not mention snow anywhere tngt, as nobody shud really chgovr bfr dawn. Temperatures will be in the low 40s for most of the night. This is close to guidance.
Tomorrow: Rain should begin to rapidly change to snow from N to S around dawn as cold air begins rushing in. I believe it will snow all the way to the coast. Even the coast may see a burst or two of heavy snow. Hwvr, accums at the coast would be very unlikely. At this time, thanks to good coord w/my cohorts, the genl thinking is that N of the Merritt Pkwy (then drawing a line E of the CT river along the same line) over an inch of snow is psbl w/the potential for 2-4" in far Nrn CT away from the valleys. The most likely places to see the highest accums (i.e. 3-4") would be I 84 North over 500 feet and the rest of the state above 1000 ft. Elevation helps this time of year. Cold air will crash down from the upper levels . This will help temps drop, and this is why I think sleet/snow mixes in to the coast, but does not accumulate, due to a warm sfc. Further N, and most definitely at high elevations, where sfc temp will be lwr, this is a diff story. Stay tuned for a snow map! As for temps I'd like to imply steady or slowly falling thru the day, but it isn't that simple. By day's end, temps will range from the upper 30s to near 40. However, the correct temp curve will probably be more like a rapid drop after dawn until about noon. Then temps recover a few degrees as precip pulls out.
Long Term: This long term disco will be shorter than normal, both due to short term concerns and the fact that there isn't all that much going on in the long term.
First, for Sunday, we have good warm air advection, but also increasing clouds. Combine that with temps that start out really cold, and it's a net -2 or so from temp guidance. So I am going with highs of 50-55. A strong cold front wl approach later in the day on Sun. The combo of bad timing and little moisture w/the front means I don't expect a good deal of pcpn. But there could be a quick sprinkle later Sun eve/Sun night.
Then very cold air rushes in for Mon and Tue. There could even be a snow flurry, especially in the NW hills, as lake effect streamers come down. Temps Tue morning should probably be even cooler than those of Sat, so there should be no reason to try and save your plants. Followed close to guidance temps on Mon, so that's highs of 40-45. Again went very close on Tue, maybe chopped a degree off here or there, so that's 40-45 again. My reasoning for Tue is that there should be more cloud cover than what guidance is indicating.
Temps then moderate rapidly the rest of the week, as high pressure shifts offshore and ridging builds over the entire country. I see no reason to deviate from guidance at all either day. So xpct highs in the mid 50s Wed and around 60 Thu. It is not inconceivable that someone along I 91 area gets to 65 Thu!
For the long range, the ridging over the majority of the country looks to prevail for at least 5-7 days. Given the way models tend to rush pattern changes, figure ten days, so that takes us to mid-month. After that, there are increasing signs that cold air in Canada will make a big push SE into our area. So xpct a 5-10 day period of above to much above normal temps, before we return to below normal temps.
Now, let's take a look at systems slated to affect the area over the next week. Since this first system is now, and there aren't really any significant systems, precipitation-wise, after tomorrow, I'll post tomorrow's coastal and then Tue morning's temps, to get an idea of how cold it is going to get.
Anyway, here is part two of our storm system: tomorrow morning's burst of snow. It is that heavier precip S of LI that we're focused on for our potential burst of snow, as it moves north, through the state.