Currently: Low pressure. the remnants of Erin, is attached to a cold front, about 350 miles east of ACY. This is having little impact on our weather, other than to create a refreshing breeze. High pressure over KY is in control today. Hurricane Dorian is located about 300 mi East of the Bahamas, per NHC.
Tonight: The biggest question for tonight's temperatures is how effective radiational cooling can be and whether or not winds stay up. Given the dry air mass in place and the remnants of Erin moving further away, I'd bet that winds would diminish, but not enough to fully decouple. So I won't go real low for lows, but I will go with the cooler (NAM) guidance. Expect a wide range in low temperatures tonight, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Tomorrow: Fair skies, pretty close to today. I am going to shave a couple degrees of MOS guidance, because gridded data does not agree with it. It should be noted that a fairly strong cold front does go through tomorrow. However, I couldn't find one model that brings measurable precipitation anywhere into the state, so we'll run with a dry forecast. Just pointing it out, because in case there is a shower somewhere, at least we know the mechanism. Expect high tempreatures to be close to 80 statewide.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Cold air advection moves in and we'll enjoy beautiful weather. Guidance is in pretty good agreement, so a split is in order, and highs should be in the upper 70s pretty much statewide Saturday.
Long Term: First, before I get to the dailies and specifics, I wanted to make some comments regarding Hurricane Dorian. First off, any effects that Hurricane Dorian has on the local area will be completely left out of the long term forecast, for now. There are several resons for this. First, the track of Dorian, after he hits Florida, is highly uncertain, although there is likely to be some poleward component eventually. Secondly, the timing is highly uncertain, as some models have introduced a bit of a stalling scenario regarding Dorian now. Finally, based on the above, it is highly uncertain as to what effects, if any, the storm has on our area. It could pass well west of the region, which would mean enhanced rainfall along a cold front. It could ride the coast, which would mean at least a strong nor'easter and perhaps even a full-blown tropical storm. It could also hook out to sea, meaning little or no effects on the region. In addition, it is also highly possible that any Dorian-related effects on our area occur after this forecast period- yet another reason for leaving it out.
What we do know is that Dorian will have major impacts in Florida this holiday weekend, and should also generate life-threatening rip currents up and down the east coast, so use caution if headed to any beaches. Finally we also know that any impacts up here will not be nearly as significant as they will be in Florida.
Now for the dailies.. .First, expect fair weather on Sunday. Due to the fact that the front is still hundreds of miles away and there is an onshore component to the wind, I have ignored any models that show precipitation over the state on Sunday. I also see no reason to quibble with MOS guidance, so it was generally followed. Expect highs in the mid 70s, except low 70s in the NW hills and along the south coast.
A frontal system approaches for Labor Day, which should trigger showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Instability may be limited due to onshore flow, so we may not get intense convection, but time will tell. Once again, I see no reason to quibble with guidance temperatures, which are in the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday could be a bit tricky. We'll be in between frontal systems, so verbatim, it should be dry. However, the air mass may actually be a bit more unstable and will certainly be humid. For now, I"ll go with a "cautious" Dry forecast. It will turn warmer, but I will not go quite as warm as today's GFS guidance, because I am expecting more clouds. So I'll go with highs in the low 80s, except near 80 in the NW Hills and along the south coast.
On Wednesday, a stronger front approaches. In addition, a very hot and humid air mass (for the time of year) will be in place. These are the right ingredients for potentially strong thunderstorms. Of course, timing has to work out, and we do not know if it will or not at this juncture. Being ahead of a front, Wednesday seems like a good day to go a touch above forecast guidance. So I'll call for highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Beyond that, it really depends on what happens with Dorian and our frontal zone. For now, we'll assume that we're post frontal, so it should be much cooler and nice, but this could change in a big way over the next week. Assuming our reasoning is correct, we'll go with fair skies and highs somewhere in the 70s, depending on your location within the state.
In my humble opinion, the long range looks to feature above normal temperatures through the first 10 to 15 days of September, with perhaps a change to below normal temperatures thereafter.
Now, let's take a look at the evolution of the Labor Day (and beyond) frontal system and how it may impact our weather. First, for Labor Day itself, you can see showers and thunderstorms over NY and NJ approaching our area. You can also see Dorian has made landfall on the Florida Coast.