We’ve been watching the severe weather and flash flooding potential for a few days now, and today I remain relatively bullish on the potential materializing today.
I expect today to be a multi-hazard day, with chances for severe thunderstorms over the course of the afternoon and evening as discrete (individual) thunderstorms and a line of thunderstorms in association with a cold front pushes through the region. In addition, with very high moisture levels and favorable flow along the cold front, a flash flooding risk exists as well.
In terms of timing, I’m thinking that we could see the first storms fire a bit earlier in the day, and everyone should be prepared for thunderstorms as early as noon. That said, I still think the bulk of the action happens between 2pm and 11pm, with a particular focus on the evening commute and rain continuing even after the line of storms moves through.
The SPC has much of western Connecticut in an Enhanced risk for severe weather, and it’s not hard to see why. I expect enough overlap of shear, instability, moisture, and lift to create strong to severe thunderstorms. Not every storm will be severe, and the threat diminishes a bit further east. However, everyone should keep an eye to the sky and radar.
In terms of the specific risks, I am thinking that high wind has the greatest chance of occurring. Hail is possible but not a main hazard. There is also a low risk for a tornado, but it is a non-zero chance. We have to closely watch anything that comes out of the Hudson Valley, where I think the greatest chance of severe weather currently is. If we see individual storms fire out ahead of the main line of storms, those discrete cells could be particularly interesting.
To be clear, I am not expecting a severe weather outbreak. Many will likely not see true severe weather or flash flooding. However, that’s the nature of severe thunderstorms. For those that do see severe weather or flash flooding, it will be a potentially dangerous situation.
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