Models and Trends
We’ve got an interesting little model battle shaping up here with the system for tomorrow night into Monday. The bulk of the guidance has trended wetter and further north with the system to match the GFS depiction from yesterday, and now advertises a solid advisory snow event for the entire state. The Euro, on the other hand, has come part of the way there. It now brings a good band of snow into the southern portion of the state, enough for advisory level amounts in roughly the four southern counties, but in the northern portion of the state there is a sharp cutoff to just an inch or so of snow.
Here’s a look at the total QPF from the Euro (left) and GFS (right). The Euro has a sharp spread between about a tenth of an inch of QPF in the north to about a third in the south, while the GFS has about a third in the north and close to a half in the south. Not a huge spread in the grand scheme of things, but the difference between a nuisance 1-3” event and a plowable 3-5” event.
Temps have also ticked slightly warmer across the board with the progression further north, but I think we’ll be just cold enough to remain all snow across the board. It wouldn’t totally shock me to see a brief mix with sleet or rain on the south coast, but as of now I think that’s unlikely.
Forecast and Timing
Here's our first call snowmap for this event.
The timing of the system hasn’t changed much, with snow moving in late Sunday evening (around midnight Monday morning) and continuing through early Monday afternoon. I don’t expect snow to be all that heavy, but the best chance for heavier snow will be Monday morning. If you have to commute Monday, plan to leave some extra time.
Here’s an animation of the system from the RGEM.
Still missing the SCW impact scale (I’m flying home tonight I’ll have it back soon!) but here’s what we’re expecting:
- Snow Accumulation: Low to Moderate
- Snowfall Rates: Low to Moderate
- Wind: Low
- Power Outages: Low
- Timing: Moderate
- Road Conditions: Moderate
We’ll be back with a final call tomorrow afternoon, until then, if you liked what you read, please consider sharing on your social media platforms and joining our family on ours.
Thanks for reading!