If I didn’t know any better, I’d think it was still summer and not mid October; we saw temps and humidity levels today that were more typical of mid August, and tomorrow looks to be even warmer and more humid. That should be summer’s last hurrah though, as the remnants of Hurricane Michael arrive on Thursday and usher in a pattern change towards cooler, fall-like weather that looks to persist for the foreseeable future.
Hot and humid. Strong ridging over the eastern seaboard will bring a subtropical airmass into the state and allow for very warm temps. GFS is most aggressive with the heat and allows for temps in the low to mid 80s, while the Euro is a bit cooler in the upper 70s. Either way, it will be very humid, with both models showing dewpoints in the upper 60s. Should have mostly sunny skies, which will make tomorrow a great day for a final taste of summer; go for a swim, have a meal al-fresco, or play a fun game outside!
Here's a look at forecast high temps from the GFS.
Remnants from Hurricane Michael will make the day pretty close to a washout despite the center of the low passing well southeast of us. Rain moves in during the early morning hours and persists for much of the day, finally clearing out later in the evening. Total QPF values look to be between half an inch and an inch, but I would expect a few isolated areas to be a bit higher if they can get into some of the heavy downpours that are likely to occur given the convergence between Michael, the backdoor cold front to our north, and the main cold front to our west. Also, given the anomalously high moisture in the column, would not be surprised if models are under doing totals somewhat. Temps run cooler than Wednesday by a few degrees, but still well above normal.
Here's a look at the simulated radar for Thursday from the NAM.
Transition day in the forecast. Could see some showers along the south coast depending on the eventual track of Michael, but otherwise expecting cloudy skies and constant to falling temps through the day (the highs for the date will likely be recorded at 12:01 AM Friday morning). Could see some clearing for the afternoon hours depending on the progress of the front. Daytime temps should be in the low 60s, close to if not a degree or two below average, and humidity will be notably lower as well.
It’ll finally feel like mid fall this weekend as a trough and corresponding cold shot move in; while this one will be a bit moderated, it marks the start of a seasonal pattern change as the southeast ridge that has been previously pushing these north of us has been vanquished. Looking at temps a few degrees below normal for both Saturday and Sunday; that puts us in the 50s for highs. Lows Saturday morning will be in the 40s, but could see some upper 30s on Sunday morning in the usual cold spots depending on what the radiational cooling setup ends up looking like. Partly to mostly sunny skies expected for both days.
The next system is showing up on guidance for this period which could bring some rain to the region, but lots of different solutions on the models and little run to run continuity. Will include some chance pops with near normal temps for now until we get a bit closer in time. Another trough moves in behind that system and will likely bring another round of below normal temps for the middle of next week.
Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with highs in the lower 80s.
Thursday: Rain likely, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Friday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with daytime highs in the low to mid 60s.
Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s.
Monday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Have a great evening and thank you for reading SCW!