Currently we’ve got unseasonably warm temperatures across the state, but those won’t last as a cold front sweeps through the state later this morning, shutting off any remaining showers that are lingering across the state. We should see temperatures falling through the afternoon as cold air filters in from the west, and strong winds are likely as well behind the passage of the front. As such, the NWS has issued a wind advisory for the entire state through this evening. A few scattered snow showers are possible tonight in western portions of the state from whatever lake effect remnants make it this far east, but I don’t expect anything more than perhaps a light dusting in the northwest hills as shown below on the hires NAM.
For Wednesday, the models had kept the two systems far enough away from us that we remained mainly dry aside from a few passing showers, but the coastal system jumped northwest on guidance over the past few cycles and now scrapes our region on the GFS and is a full born rainstorm on the Canadian. Would like to see this trend hold for another cycle or two before becoming confident on a widespread rain event for Wednesday, but the previous consensus forecast of mostly sunny seems to be in doubt. Will add in a chance of rain for Wednesday and re-evaluate tomorrow morning once we have one more round of guidance in. Here's a comparison of the GGEM and GFS from their overnight runs to their midday runs, notice the shift NW in the coastal low.
Sunday: Showers ending, then becoming partly sunny and windy, with temps falling into the low 40s by the late afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid 50s.
Wednesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation is 60% for southeast areas and 50% elsewhere.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 40s.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 40s.
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Have a great day and thank you for reading SCW!