Winter has made a return to Connecticut this evening, with some scattered snow squalls and seasonable temperatures that feel quite chilly after the warmth we’ve had the past few weeks. It will be even colder for the weekend, with highs tomorrow not getting out of the mid 20s in most areas and lows tomorrow night dropping into the single digits in parts of the state. The cold will not last, however, as warm air arrives to start the workweek and another wet system approaches for midweek.
The main story this weekend is the cold! Strong arctic high moved into the region this evening, accompanied by a few snow showers. Reinforcing shots of cold air will arrive tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening, and as such we will be seeing temps that are 10+ degrees below normal for January, never mind March! Expect daytime highs in the mid 20s on Saturday and lows in the upper single digits to low teens on Sunday morning. It will also be a bit breezy tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours, leading to below zero wind chills on Sunday morning. After the warm weather we’ve been having, this will definitely be a bit of a shock to the system! For Sunday, highs will rebound into the low 30s, and Monday morning will be another chilly one across the state due to optimal conditions for radiational cooling Sunday evening.
Here are forecast lows for Sunday morning on the GFS.
Warm air advection begins on Monday, bringing temps back up to near normal with highs in the mid 40s. A warm front passes to our west Monday evening and brings in more clouds for Tuesday along with another quick trip into the 50s. Rain comes in on an approaching cold front Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, as of now, it appears as if the core of this system passes well to our west and so rainfall will remain relatively light. Colder air comes in on the backside of the system and persists through the rest of the week before the next storm chance next weekend.
At this lead-time, guidance is trying to signal the development of some NAO blocking starting next weekend into the middle of March. We have seen quite a bit of long range blocking modeled this winter, and very little of it has verified, so I am somewhat skeptical of this suggestion, but the guidance has been consistent (and consistently bringing the blocking forward in time instead of always keeping it 10 days away), and we are now inside the 10 day period where larger scale pattern features can be forecast with some degree of skill. It’s too early to talk about any specific threats or dates, but the takeaway is that winter may not be over just yet if the modeled blocking were to verify.
Saturday: Partly sunny and cold, with highs in the low to mid 20s.
Sunday: Partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 30s.
Monday: Clouds building throughout the day. Highs in the mid 40s.
Tuesday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 50s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid 50s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 40s.
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!