We’re in the middle of a prolonged stretch of hot and dry weather, and with a few exceptions, that idea looks to continue throughout the upcoming forecast period. A strong ridge continues to persist over the region and much of the eastern portion of the US, and as a result, warm dry southern air continues to surge north straight through Connecticut and the northeast as a whole.
The only substantial chance of precipitation in the forecast comes tomorrow, when a cold front sweeps down from the northwest across the state, carrying enough instability to set off a round of showers and thunderstorms across the state. While the parameters for thunderstorms are present, there is unconvincing evidence in the modeling to suggest a severe weather event as the amount of moisture and instability is too limited, as well as the analog package offering no support towards severe development when these conditions have occurred in the past. Should any severe weather develop, hail would be the primary threat, but generally not expecting any severe development tomorrow. Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy, with coverage increasing as the day goes on, and temperatures will again be well above normal in the lower 90s across the state.
A short break from the heat comes on the back of the cold front for Friday, with mostly sunny skies and near normal temperatures in the mid 70s expected. Saturday will be a bit warmer, but still seasonable, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the state.
Heat, humidity and haziness returns for Sunday into next week, and as far as the model eye can see after that. There appears to be no break in the above normal and dry conditions coming any time soon, and that begins to raise worries re. drought conditions and fire weather. Currently, most of the state is either at normal hydration levels or in the lowest level of drought category, D0 “Abnormally Dry”, but as the stretch without precipitation increases, increases in drought coverage and intensity begin to become a concern.
As far as sensible weather goes, high temperatures look to approach if not cross the 90 mark from Sunday through Wednesday, and skies look to be mostly to completely sunny, with a few clouds and sprinkles possible Tuesday into Wednesday as a weak cold front crosses from the northwest. Humid conditions should be expected as well.
Here are the dailies.
Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the lower 90s. Chance of precipitation is 40%
Friday: Sunny, with highs in the mid 70s.
Saturday: Sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Sunday: Sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Monday: Sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Tuesday: Sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Some sprinkles or showers possible.
Wednesday: Sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Some sprinkles or showers possible.
Until next time, thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather. Stay cool!