Days like today are my favorite. It provides us all with an opportunity to stop and reflect on our families and ourselves. Time is precious. I hope all of you have the chance to enjoy today.
The weather should (mostly) cooperate! This week is front loaded. We’re tracking the chance of showers early today, humidity today and tomorrow, and an active day tomorrow. That’s where our focus will be.
We woke up to a foggy and oppressively humid start. Dew points across the state are in the 70s, which makes seasonable temperatures brutal. Now that we’re past midday, the chance of showers has diminished quite a bit. I won’t rule out a stray shower during the afternoon, but it looks like a good day.
Monday continues to look like an active day. In fact, tomorrow looks like one of the few days so far this season that requires everyone to pay attention. We’re looking at a multi-hazard day, with an enhanced risk of severe weather for some and flash flooding potential.
Now, in Connecticut, knowing whether a severe threat will materialize or not is a tricky business. However, looking at tomorrow, the ingredients for an active thunderstorm day are there. Right now, I expect sufficient instability (CAPE), shear, and moisture. Having a good forcing mechanism remains in question, but we will probably have enough to develop at least a line of storms, some of which will be strong to severe.
Right now, I’m thinking that the best period for severe weather will be between 2pm and 10pm, with a particular focus on the evening commute. Rain and thunderstorms likely continue even after the initial line of storms rolls through, which brings us to our next hazard…
The type of flow that will accompany this line of storms will be parallel to the front. That creates a flash flood signal in my mind. The National Weather Service has actually issued a Flash Flood Watch for Litchfield and Hartford Counties tomorrow. I think our southern counties (Fairfield, Middlesex, New Haven) should watch for flooding too. We could see training—the continued movement of rain over an area, which would lead to flooding.
This is particularly important: if you see a flooded road tomorrow, turn around!
Overall, tomorrow has the potential to be a rough day. Stay tuned for updates.
Not a whole lot happens after our active day on Monday. The front is slow to clear on Tuesday, so there will likely be showers that remain in the morning. We will slowly see clearing.
Wednesday could be another day with shower chances, but I am keeping them low right now.
Thursday looks like the best day of the week, with sunny skies and seasonable conditions.
I am hopeful that through Friday and Saturday work out for us, but there could be another area of disturbed weather that gives us more chances for showers. Something worth watching.
Sunday: Decreasing clouds. Humid. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s at the shore. Chance of showers 20%.
Monday: Mostly cloudy and humid with thunderstorms and rain by afternoon and evening. Some storms will be strong to severe. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 90%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers early, followed by decreasing clouds. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Chance of rain 30%.
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Have a great week!