This post is coming late, as I wanted to make sure I had the most up to date information, so let’s get down to business.
This is going to be a simple post that departs a bit from my usual style. Overall, the week ahead is a bit of a seesaw in terms of our sensible weather, but there is an elephant in the room and its name is Irma.
First, the week ahead.
Tomorrow is probably the pick of the week. With Harvey’s remnants moving away we see clearer conditions and warmer temperatures. Expect mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s in most spots. Some of our warmer locations could end up in the low 80s. Enjoy!
Tuesday we watch for the arrival of a cold front that will get hung up in our region. It’ll be a warmer and more humid day, with increasing clouds and a chance of showers developing by late afternoon and evening. Expect temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain will be in the 40-50% range.
Frankly, both days look ugly. Maybe not a traditional washout as we see when a storm approaches from the south, but the front looks to be hung up right over our area. That mean rain showers. I think things will be off and on, with a chance of thunder on Wednesday and a steadier rain on Thursday. I’ll leave to later shifts to update things as we get closer, because a front getting hung up is really a short range forecast. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s on both days with chances of rain in the 70-80% range.
Friday looks like it could be unsettled too, but I think the front will likely move a bit faster and there will be greater clearing than currently projected on the models. As a result I think you should expect temperatures in the low to mid 70s with partly cloudy conditions and a 30% chance of rain showers.
Next weekend currently looks quiet, but all eyes will be on Irma by then. I think we’re quiet here regardless of future track but I suppose that’s subject to change. In the absence of that change, expect highs in the low 70s and mostly sunny conditions.
Now to Irma. The major hurricane continues to churn in the open Atlantic, approximately 750 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The first of what will be many hurricane watches have been issued for some of those islands. For those tracking, that means that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be issuing updates every three hours.
Let’s be abundantly clear about here: we are still too far away to discuss in any detail what potential US impacts will be. Tracking, modeling, and forecasting tropical systems is unlike anything else we do in meteorology, and it is one area where models and forecasters are still behind when it comes to prediction capability, especially in the medium and long range.
That said, here are some key points that I want to make.
- There remain fundamental questions about the future track of Irma. All options remain on the table, though if I were placing odds right now, I would lean strongly against any direct New England hit. The currently modeled pattern does not look like a classic hurricane pattern for the region, but I think there is a heightened risk of a US impact somewhere.
- It will be another few days at least before we have a better sense of what the track will be. Don’t get caught up with whatever others are saying on social media. At this range model solutions are not reliable.
- Although it is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. I urge everyone in hurricane-prone areas to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.
That is not sounding the alarm. There is currently no threat to Connecticut, and I don’t expect that there will be in the near future. But as I said yesterday, this is worth casually watching until we can take the option off the table, and as we enter the peak of hurricane season, you should be ready absent any threat.
Have a great week!