Currently: Fairly weak low pressure was over E MI this evening. A warm front extended SE from the low down to S VA, as high pressure extending from New Brunswick to Labrador, was helping to keep colder air in place. A weak cold front was also over W PA.
Tonight: Light rain, showers, and drizzle, will continue most of the night for the south. For the north, freezing rain will be the dominant precipitation type for most of the night. Winter weather advisories have been issued for the entire night for Hartford, Windham, Tolland, and Litchfield counties. Some streets may be very slippery, so exercise lots of caution when traveling. Remember, ice is nearly impossible to see at night. The morning commute will be very treacherous, especially the first half. As for temperatures, temperatures should fall a few degrees near the south coast and stay steady in the north- so basically 30 to 35, with I 84 being about where the freezing line sets up (but south of there in the far NE).
Tomorrow: Any rain pulls out early, but the day could very well remain dank and cloudy, with high temperatures in the 40 to 45 degree range. That high pressure up north is stubborn to move out!
Tomorrow Night/Thursday: Fair this period, with slowly clearing skies. Due to the increased sunshine, temperatures on Thursday should climb into the mid to upper 40s.
Longer Term: Next weekend and beyond- For Friday, expect one more fair day, with highs in the mid 40s. A storm passes to the south on Saturday. Most places will remain dry, but the south coast could see sprinkles or a period of light rain during the midday hours. Highs on Saturday should be in the upper 40s.
Sunday should be dry, but clouds should increase ahead of the next system. High temperatures on Sunday should be in the mid 40s.
All eyes then turn to a very powerful, cutoff system that will be ejecting out of the mid-section of the country and then setting up shop somewhere over the Ohio Valley. As I alluded to a week ago, this storm should bring a lot of rain and perhaps near record high temperatures to the area. However, it is now appearing that this storm could be even stronger than I thought.
First, the storm will be slow-moving, so any effects from a slow-moving storm are worse than if it moved fast, for the simple fact that anything that produces possible damage lasts longer.
If current models are anywhere near being correct, we could be looking at 48 hours or more of 50+ MPH wind gusts, 3-5" of rain with locally higher amounts, and flooding along the south coast from strong Southerly winds.
There is also the chance that areas getting frozen precipitation tonight could get a brief burst of freezing or frozen precipitation at the start, but this storm will be more remembered for heavy rain and high winds, rather than frozen precipitation.
I don't want to get too specific or hype this storm too much, because it is still on days 6 to 8. However, when there is this strong of a signal for a potential major event, it's prudent to alert the public to prepare for a major storm system in the Monday to Wednesday time frame. Details, as to exact numbers, and start/end times, etc, can be ironed out later.
Beyond that storm, the pattern will begin to change, as promised, with a very blocky pattern developing. This should continue the general stormy pattern, but at the same time, throw a lot more cold air into the mix. I have a feeling we'll be writing more long discussions and spending many sleepless nights tracking storms soon!
Now, let's take a look at some maps, mostly focused on the long range today. First, let's take a quick look at the major system slated for early next week. For now, I'll just display the standard precip map, because it is a week out. Future shifts may want to display other maps, such as jet stream, precipitable water, etc, as we get closer to the event.