Currently: A cold front extended from near El Paso to the Quad Cities area. Meanwhile, a warm front extended eastward into NW PA. This combination will bring unsettled weather to the state tomorrow.
Tonight: For tonight, areas of fog will be possible along the immediate south coast. Otherwise, expect a generally cloudy night, with temperatures not going anywhere in a hurry. Right now, most of the rain associated with the warm front is south of the region, so the south coast will have the best chance of seeing measurable rain overnight. The best chances of any rain would be centered around midnight. If it rains, it would actually be a good thing, in terms of limiting any fog potential. As far as temperatures, don’t expect temperatures to fall very much. Temperatures will be pretty uniform across the state, in the upper 40s, except some 40-45 degree readings on the immediate southeast coast, due to onshore flow.
Tomorrow: A lot depends on how fast the morning rain clears out and how much sun we get. This will determine how warm we can get and how much destabilization can occur to allow a strong line of showers and thunderstorms to hit the region. Models have cooled with respect to temperatures today vs. yesterday. The NAM model is warmer than the rest of the guidance, and I will use it about 2/3 of the way, in deference to the pattern of the past couple weeks. With that in mind, an air mass shower or thunderstorm is possible at any time. Then, as the cold front approaches, a more solid line of showers and thunderstorms approach later in the day and at night. Timing is not ideal, as the frontal passage occurs a bit too late for most of the state to really capitalize on severe weather. However, if we can get warm, temperatures will not fall significantly during a cloudy night. Additionally, dew points will be quite high. This could sustain instability longer than otherwise possible. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state in a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. The map will be posted below. As for temperatures, keeping in mind what I said earlier, expect highs to range from near 60 (probably not getting out of the 50s near GON), to the upper 60s in the CT Valley.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: Lingering showers and thunderstorms pull out after midnight. Thereafter, much cooler air will filter in. Timing will be the key to forecasting low temperatures tomorrow night. It doesn’t really matter either way… temperatures likely won’t rise much during the day Thursday. Thursday afternoon’s temperatures will be in the 45-50 degree range. With winds gusting to 40-45 MPH at times, it will feel significantly colder.
Long Term: The weekend and beyond: The first issue of the long term is an Alberta Clipper system for the daytime hours on Friday. This clipper system will produce a narrow swath of snow. Under the heaviest bands, some bursts of moderate to heavy snow are possible. Most guidance keeps the bulk of the snow south of the area. However, the south coast may be close enough to get a small accumulation. High temperatures on Friday will not make it to 40 in most locations. Combine that with wind gusts to 35-40 MPH and it will feel very cold!
The next issue for the weekend will be an Arctic outbreak for Friday night into Sunday morning. Although the weather will be fair, it will be very cold with lows in the teens and even some single digits Saturday and Sunday mornings! Saturday’s high temperatures will likely stay in the 20s. Sunday’s highs should approach 40. There is the potential for a few snow showers later in the day on Sunday, as a warm front approaches.
Monday and Tuesday should see the weather turn warmer, with temperatures at or just above normal. A storm will likely bring some rain to the region on Tuesday. Beyond that, as we head deeper into the long range, the overall pattern will turn much colder. Then we’ll wait and see if any winter threats await us.
Now, let’s take a look at some of the systems that will be affecting the state this week, in a graphical format. First, this is the convective outlook for tomorrow from the Storm Prediction Center. Notice that the Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state in a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms.