If you saw my two-week outlook from a few days ago, you know that we have an interesting week ahead. We go from warmer than normal to colder than normal, with rain and maybe some snow by the time all is said and done.
The first two days of the week are the warm period. Tomorrow is warmer than normal, but it isn’t all that warm, as high pressure shifts off the coast. Monday should be nice. With fair conditions for everyone. Warm air will move in Monday night, setting the stage for a warmer Tuesday.
Tuesday will be a warm day by December standards, as a strong cold front begins to approach from the west. The front will take its time to move through the region, and I expect showers to begin Tuesday afternoon. A period of rain is most likely from the evening hours through early Wednesday. There could be some heavier showers, so Tuesday and Wednesday are umbrella days. The chill will be lurking.
The front will be continuing to push through on Wednesday, leaving the chances of showers into the afternoon hours. Temperatures are likely to be warm early and drop during the day as the front passes. At the tail end, we have to watch to see if there’s enough moisture left after the front passes to change any rain showers to snow showers, but just as I said in the two week, it rarely pans out. We’ll continue to watch in case if there are any changes in the potential for something more significant than a few mangled flakes or flurries.
Thursday should be quiet. The front will have passed, and we will see a move toward colder than normal temperatures. At the outset of this pattern change, I don’t see high temperatures being significantly below normal, but you will definitely feel the chill with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s for most. We’ll have to watch and see if we get more of a direct arctic shot, but right now, it looks like we ease into the cold.
Here is our first wintertime period of interest and it is important to note that nothing may happen at all. Currently, it looks like the cold front will push through the region during the week, and will end up offshore. However, as the trough that brings the cold tries to amplify, we could see a wave of low pressure or a series of weak lows attempt to develop along that front and ride northeast and up the shore.
To be clear, right now there is a lot of uncertainty as to whether 1) anything will develop, 2) if anything gets close enough to provide precipitation, and 3) what that precipitation type would be. Don't waste your time getting excited or upset about anything next weekend if you love tracking this stuff. We have a long way to go.
GFS depiction of a weak wave scooting well offshore late Friday/early Saturday but throwing a bit of light snow into the region. This has not been a consistent feature on the GFS.
European model depiction of another shortwave that brings mixed precipitation to the state late Saturday/early Sunday. Like the GFS, this has not been a consistent solution, as we're looking at a progressive and convoluted pattern with multiple shortwaves.
I think a light snow or mixed event is plausible but not yet likely. Beware of the snow accumulation maps and hype online. We could easily be cold and dry next weekend.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tuesday: Increasing clouds with showers by afternoon and evening. Rain overnight could be heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 90%.
Wednesday: Lingering showers with a chance of snow flurries or snow showers in the early afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 50s early, dropping during the day. Chance of rain 40%. Chance of snow 10%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Friday: SCW Period of Interest. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Lows in the 20s. Chance of snow 20%
Saturday: SCW Period of Interest. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Lows in the 20s. Chance of snow 20%
Sunday: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow 10%
Remember, a period of interest merely means it is a time frame that is uncertain but worth watching. It does not mean we will see significant winter weather each day.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.