I know it's early, but perhaps winter is showing us its hand. After our first winter weather event turned out to be a big one, the week of Thanksgiving is looking wintry as well, with well below normal cold and a few opportunities for wintry precipitation. Let's dive in.
Today is looking pretty good. We're starting the day with a mix of clouds and sun, and with high pressure in charge we will see a mostly dry day. Today is certainly a good time to finish up Thanksgiving shopping. Clouds will begin to increase over the course of the afternoon and evening as a boundary begins to sag south.
As we go into the later afternoon hours, we will likely see some snow showers or a period of light now in northwest and northern CT. After highs in the upper 30s to near 40, temperatures will fall to near freezing in some of the northern towns. Although we are expecting mostly rain as the boundary continues to push south tonight and early Monday, we could see mixed precipitation in the colder spots of northern Connecticut during this time.
Precipitation will continue into Monday. Folks in northwest CT should be prepared for a light accumulation of snow/mixed precipitation, with little to no accumulation elsewhere. There could be some delays in the hill towns with some slick spots. Otherwise, other places will see wet conditions with rain showers that diminish in coverage over the course of the afternoon. Monday will be the warmest day of the shortened work week, but still below normal with highs in the 40s.
Below is the high resolution NAM showing the potential for mixed precipitation for northern towns just after midnight. We could see a period of snow showers or light snow in northern CT earlier than that, with rain showers further south.
Here we go again? I'm declaring Tuesday a Period of Interest for the potential of accumulating snow. The boundary that brings us a mix of rain and snow on Monday pushes south, and it becomes a focal point for development of a low pressure system. The low looks to be pretty weak, but with cold air in the region (highs will be in the 30s) guidance is beginning to converge on a snowy day Tuesday. It's not a lock yet though. There are still some important details that need to come into focus, most importantly, how far south the low tracks and how much cold is in the state at the time the precipitation arrives. If the low tracks over us, it's a rain event.
Unlike last storm, the airmass in place here is more marginal. Parts of southern Connecticut could see plain rain. For northern Connecticut however, accumulating snow is looking more likely, again depending on the track of the low. It's still a bit too soon to discuss totals, but this is worth watching.
Should the guidance trend hold, we could see delays and cancellations in northern Connecticut on Tuesday. Stay tuned.
The Arctic hammer begins to drop on Wednesday. Things should clear out and Wednesday looks like a nice day. However, as an Arctic front pushes through the state, we could see some snow showers and snow squalls. Right now, it looks isolated, but it's worth flagging given the heavy travel expected the day before Thanksgiving.
Can you believe that Thanksgiving is just around the corner? I can't. The winter theme continues on Thanksgiving, with a big Arctic blast that will challenge records. The day looks nice, but it will be windy and frigid. Morning lows will be in the single digits and teens, with highs in the 20s. For perspective, the average high is around 50 degrees. This could be the coldest Thanksgiving since the 1800s. With the wind, it will feel like the teens or colder all day.
The end of the week looks cold as well, but we begin to moderate temperatures. Friday will start out cold and will stay cold with highs in the 30s, but by Saturday we begin to break the cold pattern and return to seasonably cool conditions. Although the weekend could be wet, the signal is a bit muddled right now. Traveling in the region looks ok, but we'll hone in on that forecast as we get closer.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and seasonably cool early, with a chance of snow by the late afternoon/evening for northern CT. Highs in the upper 30s to near 40. Chance of snow in northern CT 40%. Chance of rain elsewhere 40%.
Monday: Mixed precipitation in colder spots of northern CT, otherwise mostly cloudy with showers. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Tuesday: SCW Period of Interest. Snow in northern CT and mixed precipitation/rain in southern CT. Highs in the 30s. Chance of precipitation 70%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and cold, with a chance of snow showers or squalls. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
Thursday: Nice and frigid. Morning temperatures in the single digits to teens with wind chills near zero and single digits. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 20s with wind chills in the teens.
Friday: Partly sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Saturday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 20%.
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