Currently: A current surface analysis places low pressure near Coney Island this afternoon, A warm front extended from near Nantucket to Washington, DC. A cold front was over the Allegheny Mountains. The warm front will likely never clear the area. However, until the cold front passes overnight, there is still the chance of a shower or even a brief thunderstorm. In fact, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms was currently organizing over Eastern Pennsylvania.
Tonight: As mentioned, we'll keep a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast until the midnight to 2 AM timeframe, when the cold front should be moving through. Temperatures are a bit tricky tonight, because they'll be dependent on how quickly we can clear out. However, with fresh cold air advection being a definite, I feel a couple degrees below guidance is the right way to go. Therefore, most places will get to near 50 or a couple of degrees above, with some 40s possible in the NW hills.
Tomorrow: Guidance is in pretty good agreement and does not look all that bad. However, tomorrow is a similar setup to Wednesday, and on Wednesday, temperatures ended up a degree or two cooler than guidance. Therefore, I'll shave a degree or so off guidance tomorrow, and call for highs of 70 to 75 statewide. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon tomorrow. Although most places will see nothing, the freezing level is quite low, so any stronger systems could produce small hail.
Tomorrow Night/Saturday: Temperature guidance is in pretty good agreement. Warmer air will move in, as high pressure transfers offshore. It should be dry, in terms of both lack of precipitation and relative humidity. However, high clouds will begin to increase in the afternoon, as higher humidity approaches. Will just take a consensus blend of guidance for temperatures on Saturday. Generally, high temperatures should be near 80 or a degree or two below.
Long Term: Sunday into the next week- Basically, we'll be looking for ways to say "partly cloudy, warm, and humid, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms:. I and whoever else updates this page over the weekend (DB, etc), will probably need to get a thesaurus! The reason I say this is because there will literally be showers and thunderstorms possible at just about any time. Right now, it appears Sunday night into Monday would be the most likely period of thunderstorms, but basically from midday Sunday right through the entire long term, there are chances of showers and thunderstorms.
The region will be located along the "ring of fire"- besides being a Johnny Cash song, this is a region, along the periphery of a heat ridge, where there is contrast between hotter temperatures to the south and west, and cooler marine air to the north and east, as well as just enough instability to spark showers and thunderstorms.
I do not feel confident in saying which days will be wetter vs drier at this time, especially beyond Monday. Models (as is to be expected with a setup like this) are waffling from run to run. It just appears there is enough warmth, humidity, and instability to generate showers and thunderstorms at just about any time, with diurnal (daytime) storms probably being more favored.
As for temperatures. Sunday through Tuesday should feature above normal temperatures, with the warmest readings likely on Sunday and Monday. After that, temperatures probably moderate to around average. But temperatures can be a bit tricky, as well, as areas that get thunderstorms, especially if they initiate around midday, would likely be significantly cooler. Unfortunately, those areas could be very random in nature.
Into the long range, models continue to disagree with the strength and positioning of the Western Atlantic Ridge. If I were a betting man, based on the way the pattern has been, I'd bet that it keeps us on the ring of fire for quite a time to come!
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems slated to affect the region, in graphical format. First, we'll look at the cold frontal storms for tonight. On this map, you can see widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over New Jersey and Pennsylvania. They will head for Connecticut later.