Today was a beautiful start to the week. We began the second half of July with a seasonable day, complete with sunny skies and low humidity. It was basically a perfect summer day. Sadly, these conditions will not last, as we deal with the remnants of Hurricane Barry and the potential for another heat wave, perhaps our biggest yet.
Tomorrow looks to start off similar to today, with partly cloudy skies and great conditions. A weak system and warm front is likely to push toward the region, which may spark some isolated thunderstorms and increasing humidity values as the day progresses.
The middle of the week should feature showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Hurricane Barry. I am not inclined to think that this period is a washout, however, the signals from guidance say otherwise. As you can see from the GFS below, there may be a weak low that tries to form along a frontal boundary. With higher humidity and precipitable water values, it is likely that the showers and storms will provide periods of heavy rain.
This will be something to watch as the week progresses, but at this time I do not anticipate widespread severe weather. Rain totals may be another story however, and that will be reflected in the dailies below.
How do you define "Big Heat"? For me, it is defined as temperatures of 95 or above, or heat indices over 100. Getting hot days, that is, days over 90 is common in our part of New England, but big heat is relatively uncommon.
The end of the week looks to feature our latest heat wave of the year (three consecutive days of 90+) and our first big heat wave of the season.
Below: animated European model depictions of the 500mb progression from Friday to Monday morning and the 850mb temperatures. It's a hot signal. Perhaps not as big as the GFS, but it is hot nonetheless.
Humidity looks to be high, with dew points in the 60s to 70s. Higher dew points would limit maximum temperature potential, but would significantly increase discomfort outside.
The National Weather Service has already hinted a the idea of heat headlines for the potential of heat indices over 100, and even the shoreline looks unlikely to escape the heat this time.
The heat may break by next Tuesday, so stay tuned.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and seasonably warm. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of showers 10%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some rain may be heavy at times. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs in the low to mid 90s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Monday: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs in the low to mid 90s.
Finally, apologies for the delayed post. I recently returned from Louisiana where I was tracking/chasing Hurricane Barry! Here are some images below. This week marks Hurricane Preparedness Week, and I hope to share my New England Tropical Climatology post this week. Stay tuned for that!
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