Currently: Examining today's surface analysis, you can clearly see two important players on the weather field. The first is high pressure over Nova Scotia, keeping the area cool and dry today. The second is a warm front currently over Wrn PA. This warm front wl be the beginning of the end of this nice, cool, dry pattern.
Tonight: The general thinking for now is that most of the rain associated with the warm front will ride north of the region. The only place that could get a glancing blow would be far NE CT (Tolland/Windham), and even there it would probably be just a quick sprinkle or shower centered around dawn. As for temps, I went pretty close to guidance, w/o a big reason to differ too much. Altho I could see temps being warmer, rather than cooler, than gdnc if anything. Xpct lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Tomorrow: SPC is not enthused about big storms and neither am I. They have the entire NE US in "general thunderstorms", which I agree with. Of course, any given t-storm can become briefly strong or even severe, but I am not expecting widespread svr wx at this time. I think coverage will be scattered at best at any given time, w/NE CT possibly not seeing anything at all, as their atmos gets worked over from AM stuff. In Wrn CT there could be 2 rounds of storms-one late in the day and the other ard midnite. Either way, it's not a big event, and it's not unusual to get t-storms in July in this area. As for temps, gdnc looks xclnt and is accepted. Xpct highs ard 80.
Long Term (Sat and beyond): For the weekend, no precipitation is expected. With the Bermuda high pumping up the heat, I'll go a bit warmer than guidance on Sat. W/ltl or no sea breeze xpctd, look for highs in the low 90s.
On Sunday, the same general forecasting philosophy applies as Saturday. With a big Bermuda Ridge an d no mechanism for a sea breeze, go a bit higher than guidance. Xpct highs 90-95, maybe even some solid mid 90s alg I 91.
Our next chance of any thunderstorm activity appears to be on Monday. In an ironic twist, something different than the norm, the greatest chance will be along the S coast. This is because sea breezes wl be a bit stronger and could flare up storms there. N of the Merritt, the chc drops to isolated at best, w/just random pop-up storms possible. It wl be very hot on Mon, w/highs 90-95. Gdnc was accepted, w/a few local adjustments.
For Tuesday, during the day, there should be just a slight chance of storms, confined to areas W of I 91. For those same areas, there will be a better chance of storms later at night Tues nite. I usually do not get too excited about nighttime thunderstorms, but on very hot days, there can be enough heat leftover to sustain storms into the nite. E of I 91, the chc of any storms on Tues is slim to none. Since I believe we'll be sunnier than NBM gdnc indicates (it appears to be contaminated by a cpl overly stormy members), I'll go a cpl deg higher than gdnc. This gives us highs ard 90, w/some low 90s psbl alg I 91.
For Wednesday, this is the day I think we'll have the greatest shot at thunderstorms across the entire state. A large backdoor cold frontal boundary will slide S across the state, probably providing relief from the heat as it does so. Some sun late in the morn to midday should serve to destabilize the area, and numerous t-storms should dvlp in the aftn. I do think the front wl be a few hrs slower than advertised by the NBM, so I went a few deg higher on temps. Xpct the warmest places to touch 90 and everyone else to be in the upper 80s.
A lot of uncertainty on Thursday's forecast, which is not unexpected, given that it hinges on frontal position and it's day 7. For now, a consensus approach is that the front clears 1/2 the area and gets hung up in Ern CT. So, W of 91, just xpct widely scattered storms, as the air wl be a lot more stable. E of 91, xpct numerous t-storms to continue. As for temps, I'll go close to gdnc, but maybe a bit cooler, esp over Ern CT, w/numerous storms xpctd. So xpct highs to be in the mid 80s.
The overall long range pattern continues to look generally warm to hot. As is always the case, thunderstorms will depend on positioning of frontal boundaries or little sea breeze boundaries and are not easy to focus on this far out.
Now, let's take a graphical look at some of the systems slated to affect the area. For today's package, I apologize that I will only be including one graphic, but that graphic will focus on tmrw. The next real good chance of storms for the entire state is not until next week, and w/such uncertainty at this lead time, I prefer to leave that out of the disco. On this image, you can see frontal thunderstorms approaching the state, but note the lack of much dark coloring on the map. This is usually an indicator that the activity is scattered or broken in nature, and that some people may see nothing at all.