Currently: Very weak low pressure right over the BM is in the process of pulling out. A leftover shower is still possible, esp across Ern CT, over the next few hrs, and a few showers could mix with ice pellets over far NE CT, but any precip will be inconsequential.
Tonight: Skies clear. W/modest CAA and "decent" radiational conditions, I've gone just a tad below guidance. Lows generally near 30 thruout the state.
Tomorrow: Not a bad day at all for the time of yr, as skies clear out. Went very close to NBM temp guidance. Highs generally 40-45, although if we get a downsloping breeze, a few near I 91 may exceed 45.
Tomorrow Night/Sun: Clouds increase during the day Sun, esp S, ahead of the next sys. For now, I figure clouds should be late and of the high variety, and not have too much effect on temps. I went close to guidance, with mainly near 40, except some downslope areas getting a bit warmer. If clouds arrive earlier and are thicker, I could be too warm.
Long Term: The long term period will be bookended by threats, with tranquil wx in between.
Our first threat is for mainly S CT Sun nite into at least the first part of Mon. Right now, this sys appears weak and does not appear to have much chance for amplification. Still, there could be some accumulating snow, esp on untreated surfaces. Even so, any accums appear to be very light- less than an inch.
As for Monday's temps, clouds prob linger longer than what guidance has, so I went under temps. We prob stay near 40, w/maybe a bit warmer along I 91. If snow is heavier than fcst, these temps could be too warm.
For Tue, went close to guidance, because I see no reason to fcst anything different. Appears to be a very nice day, with sun and highs in the mid 40s.
For Wed, went close to, or just a bit over guidance. Cold front goes thru in the aftn and it is possible that models are underdoing the warm surge ahead of it. Front passes thru dry, so no pcpn in fcst. Highs generally near 40, with 40-45 along I 91.
For Thu, went near or just a tad under guidance, w/fresh cold air advection. Cooler, w/highs generally in the upper 30s.
On Fri, clouds increase and there could be a snow shower way out ahead of our next sys, depending on what model you believe. Steady pcpn prob holds off until after dark. Went a tad below guidance, because I have clouds increasing faster than the NBM. Highs still generally in the upper 30s.
As for the weekend sys, this is just beyond our fcst pd. As of right now, the GFS and CMC would be a snow to rain scenario, w/potential for sig mixed pcpn in interior sections, while the ECMWF would be a mainly rain scenario, perhaps ending as some snow in the far NE. We are way too far out to speculate on exact ptypes, duration, etc.
No graphics today because the main sys in the fcst is beyond the real fcst pd and the only other sys is very weak.
Take care and see you next week!