Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
It's a quick turnaround, as we're already tracking the next storm. This is a brief look at our final forecast for our most recent storm. The first in ten weeks!
It's a quick turnaround, as we're already tracking the next storm. This is a brief look at our final forecast for our most recent storm. The first in ten weeks!
Above: the final snow total map from our snowstorm. I used a mix of NWS reports and follower final totals. I tried to fit in as many as I can. None of the final reports came in lower than our 3" floor or higher than our 8" ceiling. That's as good as it gets.
The Forecast
Timing
We expected snow to begin between 6-10pm, and while that was generally a good call, I think there are some points lost because from what I could tell we didn't have flakes falling until the 7pm hour.
The heaviest snow did occur during the overnight hours, especially the early Tuesday timeframe. Snow continued for most through Tuesday morning and into the afternoon. As we expected the bulk of the snow fell by 8am and as temperatures warmed during the day, accumulation wasn't as efficient, especially in southern CT. In fact, one follower reported rain in coastal SE CT.
Overall, great call. Points lost for being slightly off on start time in the west.
Grade: A-
Snow Accumulation
We had high confidence in a widespread 4-8 inches of snow. That worked out perfectly. The snow totals were pretty uniform in different regions of the state, and despite not a lot of reports in NW CT, I did see 6-7" reports on social media which were not included in the map.
The biggest win was the shoreline zone. When the models were trying to throw out 7-9" totals along the coast late yesterday, we held with our 3-6" zone. While we didn't see as many 5-6" reports as I thought yesterday afternoon, only a few spots were near our 3" floor. Had we upgraded that zone to 4-8, or a done a statewide 5-10, which we were thinking about for a bit, we would have busted. We bet against the high totals of the models at short range yesterday and won that bet.
Some will probably want to contest this, but everyone who follows knows I'm no nonsense with grading. This was about as good as it gets from SCW.
Grade: A
Impacts
We expected a moderate impact event and got one. We were accurate with our roads forecast, which called for messy conditions late Monday through Tuesday morning, but gradually improving during the day Tuesday. Importantly, we got the widespread cancellations call right.
We weren't quite perfect though. We were ever so slightly warmer than expected, which led to more wet than fluffy snow. In the whole scheme of things, we weren't off by much at all, but off is off. It was probably the difference between widespread 5-7 and widespread 6-8. There were no power or wind impacts.
Grade: A
Overall Grade
We did an excellent job. This is about as good as forecasters can do, especially given the back and forth of the guidance inside 72 hours. Snow accumulation, as always, is weighed heavier than the other factors.
Final Grade: A
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
The Forecast
Timing
We expected snow to begin between 6-10pm, and while that was generally a good call, I think there are some points lost because from what I could tell we didn't have flakes falling until the 7pm hour.
The heaviest snow did occur during the overnight hours, especially the early Tuesday timeframe. Snow continued for most through Tuesday morning and into the afternoon. As we expected the bulk of the snow fell by 8am and as temperatures warmed during the day, accumulation wasn't as efficient, especially in southern CT. In fact, one follower reported rain in coastal SE CT.
Overall, great call. Points lost for being slightly off on start time in the west.
Grade: A-
Snow Accumulation
We had high confidence in a widespread 4-8 inches of snow. That worked out perfectly. The snow totals were pretty uniform in different regions of the state, and despite not a lot of reports in NW CT, I did see 6-7" reports on social media which were not included in the map.
The biggest win was the shoreline zone. When the models were trying to throw out 7-9" totals along the coast late yesterday, we held with our 3-6" zone. While we didn't see as many 5-6" reports as I thought yesterday afternoon, only a few spots were near our 3" floor. Had we upgraded that zone to 4-8, or a done a statewide 5-10, which we were thinking about for a bit, we would have busted. We bet against the high totals of the models at short range yesterday and won that bet.
Some will probably want to contest this, but everyone who follows knows I'm no nonsense with grading. This was about as good as it gets from SCW.
Grade: A
Impacts
We expected a moderate impact event and got one. We were accurate with our roads forecast, which called for messy conditions late Monday through Tuesday morning, but gradually improving during the day Tuesday. Importantly, we got the widespread cancellations call right.
We weren't quite perfect though. We were ever so slightly warmer than expected, which led to more wet than fluffy snow. In the whole scheme of things, we weren't off by much at all, but off is off. It was probably the difference between widespread 5-7 and widespread 6-8. There were no power or wind impacts.
Grade: A
Overall Grade
We did an excellent job. This is about as good as forecasters can do, especially given the back and forth of the guidance inside 72 hours. Snow accumulation, as always, is weighed heavier than the other factors.
Final Grade: A
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
