Our latest storm has passed and it's time to grade the forecast.
Below: the NWS final map of accumulation, which includes sleet.
We predicted that precipitation would begin between 7-10pm on Friday, and that turned out to be accurate. It was a little interesting to see far southern CT end up one of the latest places to see precipitation start, but on balance this part of the timing forecast was good.
In our central zone, we thought a change to rain would eventually happen, and it looks like the GFS was more right than the NAM in the end as sleet really held on into early Saturday morning. As expected, roads were much better by late morning and early afternoon for most in the accumulation zones.
As you can see from the NWS map, we did pretty well. It was too warm for much in far southern CT. In the central zone, with a few exceptions most saw a coating to two inches of snow/sleet. In nor northern zone, we didn't bust, but there were a few outliers that had over the 3" ceiling we predicted. That takes the grade down a bit but not too much. A 2-4" zone may have been a little better. We would not have predicted 3-5" up there.
At the end of the event this seemed pretty spot on. In the southernmost zone, it was a minor to nonevent. We didn't see as much wind as expected, but we were right that we were not going to have major power issues.
We were right that the central zone would be minor to moderate, and I think if you were out on the roads early Saturday, it was more moderate than minor. That fell within our range. The same is true for the northern zone, even though a few areas went higher than our accumulation forecast. By afternoon, roads were mostly clear and we already saw significant melting in most spots.
Despite the very tricky forecast, it essentially played out as expected. It's good to see us on a hot streak with another great forecast overall. Because we weigh accumulation 2x, it takes our grade down a little.
Final Grade: B+
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