Currently: Frontal system is near the area. Because of its proximity to the area and the fact that convection has not initiated in our area, feel chances of t-storms in our state are fairly low. Much higher chcs for tstorms and svr wx too, are further S &W. I will address this further down.
Tonight: As I said, I don't like the storm chances very much for the state. Still, the chance is not zero, so I think we can layer chcs something like this: 20-30% chance along the South coast, and everywhere East of I 91 (where timing will be bad), to 40-50% in the NW hills, where timing is better & instability is higher. As for temps, I went just a smidge below guidance. Xpct most lows in the mid 60s.
Tomorrow: We clear out and dry out behind the front. As is typical in this part of the country, the humidity will drop before the temp does. With good downsloping conditions, I'll go a bit warmer than temp guidance. It will be quite warm, despite low humidity, with highs in the mid 80s.
Labor Day Weekend: Labor day weekend actually appears to be sunny with low levels of humidity, as models currently keep all frontal systems too far west to bring any precipitation into the region. As for temps, I stayed close to the guidance values for Sat and Sun, and went a bit above guidance for Mon, as downsloping winds increase, aiding in a warming of the lwr lvl of the atmosphere. So xpct highs in the mid to upper 70s Sat, near 80 Sun, and low 80s Mon.
Looking into the longer term, as high pressure gradually shifts offshore, humidity levels will gradually begin to increase, if not on Tuesday, then definitely by Wednesday. In addition, as a frontal zone slowly approaches the region, chances for showers and t-storms will increase. For now, and of course, things can change at this lead time, I'll keep Tuesday completely dry, introduce just a slgt chc of t-storms on Wed, and then ramp up to more likely storms for Thu. In fact, Thu (next week) may feature a line of svr storms if we can get a clean frontal passage, Hwvr, due to the fact that this is a long way out, and due to the fact that timimg has to be good for svr storms, it is far too early to go talking too much about that. As for temps, I went close to guidance, xcpt a bit warmer than guidance on Wed, because I think the consensus guidance is too cloudy, thereby resulting in too cool temps. W/that said, look for highs of 80-85 Tue and Wed, and near 80 Thu.
Looking a bit longer range, it is possible that the frontal boundary that moves through next Thursday gets stuck along the East coast and waves of low pressure move up it. That could result in a very rainy Friday with subsequent showers lingering into the wknd. It's too early to go crazy speculating, but this is something the models have had in one form or another for quite a while.
For once this summer, I really do not have any maps to post, as tonight we're only going to see scattered to widely scattered t-storms and the next system is not for another 6-7 days. So enjoy the wx, stay safe, and I'll see you next week!