It has been nearly three weeks since I last wrote a formal discussion, and with good reason. It has been a continuation of winter 2022-23 thus far: virtually snowless and far warmer than normal. It has been so quiet, this forecaster has begun longing for real spring. Doesn't a week of 70 and sunny sound wonderful?
We have seen a very long period of quiet, relative to winter weather threats this year. However, this is looking to change this week as we watch multiple opportunities for...something...
Let's dive in.
A holiday for many, tomorrow looks like a decent, but cloudy day. It is likely our last truly warm day for a while. Expect highs in the low to mid 50s, which this time of year is 10-15 degrees above normal.
Our active period starts as a weak wave passes to our north and tries to spawn redevelopment to our south. While the early morning looks quiet, we will likely see periods of rain that could change briefly to snow or a mix of rain and snow during the late morning and afternoon. Wintry precipitation is most likely in northern Connecticut, but temperatures are marginal. I am not expecting a significant event, but watching in case the redevelopment off the coast gets a little stronger. This is actually important for the more significant late week event, because a colder event will drive the temperature boundary a little further south for Thursday.
Wednesday is a transition day, as we watch the primary weather maker of the week approach. It should start off quiet and sunny, with highs in the low to mid 40s. We will see increasing clouds into the afternoon and evening, and it's possible we start to see snow and mixed precipitation late in the evening as the storm approaches.
It's not quite a SCW Period of Interest, but it's close to it. This system, which has been on the computer guidance in various iterations for more than a week, is now looking like a fairly classic overrunning event, which is simply warmer air overrunning colder air at the mid and lower levels to produce precipitation.
While still a bit skeptical of the impact, this is looking like a higher confidence winter weather event in at least northern CT.
Why? These kind of events tend to be simpler with less reliance on the broader pattern, which has without question been far warmer with storms cutting to the west. We don't have to think about storm track here.
The critical factor in this event is where the boundary of low level warm/cold air sets up, and whether there is a "cold tuck" during the event that allows for additional cold air to funnel in and prolong the wintry precipitation. The trend so far has been colder, even in southern CT.
For now, northern CT should expect snow to change to mixed precipitation, which could be both sleet and freezing rain and result in icing. In southern CT, I currently see the potential for mixed precipitation to rain in southern CT.
Note that there is still a fair amount to be sorted about how much cold filters in, but this looks increasingly unlikely to trend to an all rain event for CT, even if it trends warmer late. This is looking like our first legitimate winter weather event in a while in northern CT, and possibly southern CT if the trends continue. There may be widespread cancellations on Thursday.
The models want to keep some precipitation around on Friday, but I think that's unlikely. As a result, I think Friday looks quiet and cold in the wake of the event, with highs in the 20s and 30s.
The weekend will likely have another chance for wintry precipitation, but this one is tenuous. Cold air should be in place, but Saturday looks quiet. Sunday may bring another system like Tuesday, with a weak system to the north trying to spawn redevelopment. Not worth talking about much right now.
Monday: Mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. Highs in the low to mid 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 80%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds and a chance of snow/mix late. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 40% late.
Thursday: Snow (early)/rain/and mixed precipitation. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 90%.
Friday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 30%.
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