Today was more meh than anything else, but fortunately, we are seeing some much needed rain this evening. The week ahead is looking more unsettled than the previous few weeks, but nothing currently screams total washout. Let's dive in.
The start of the work week is looking unsettled. The rotating low out in the west that is bringing the rain is expected to slowly move east, meaning that tomorrow will also bring periods of showers, that may be heavier at times. It won't rain the entire time, and some parts of the state probably won't see all that much. These kinds of low pressure precipitation patterns tend to be hit or miss.
This likely continues into early Tuesday, but the day should dry out as it progresses. Temperatures are likely to be pretty cool relative to normal on Monday, but Tuesday should see a modest rebound in high temperatures. On Tuesday the best chance of rain will be in SW CT.
The middle of the week looks to be the brief quiet period. It won't last long. Wednesday looks cloudy and seasonable, but it should be a dry day.
Thursday looks unsettled again. Both the GFS and Euro take another sprawling low from the west through the region Thursday and Friday. This one looks stronger than the one we're currently contending with, and adding to the uncertainty is the possible secondary development of a coastal low as the broader low treks east. That means a cold rain looks likely on Thursday and at least early Friday, but the guidance is also showing the potential for snowflakes in parts of New England.
Right now, I'm not biting. I think the most likely outcome is a period of rain on Thursday followed by a reinforcing shot of unseasonably cold and rain late Thursday into early Friday. We'll continue to watch in case we do see a continued colder trend for elevated areas of northern and western CT. Nothing really worth thinking about too much right now.
Friday could go either way in terms of precipitation. The GFS currently wants to keep rain showers around into Saturday, but other guidance clears out sooner. Right now, I think we see decreasing chances on Friday as the day progresses, but that's another thing to watch.
Below is a GFS depiction of the late week storm. It's only useful for the general progression, not hour by hour details.
For now, the weekend is looking cloudy with a chance of showers on each day. If the late week low moves out sooner, we might be able to get a nice day out of the weekend, much like this weekend.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 40%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 60s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and seasonably cold with rain showers. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 40%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
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